The Hindu Business Line : The foreign policy challenges ahead

The new government that takes office faces a tough foreign policy call, with the peace process with Pakistan and relations with China poised crucially, and a critical crude oil situation that may need proactive responses, apart from balancing positions vis-à-vis the US and Iraq. Needed is sobriety in foreign policy, says G. Parthasarathy.

IN AN article that he penned just before the dramatic election victory of the Congress(I) and its allies, Mr J. N. Dixit, who played a key role in formulating the national security and foreign policy objectives of the Congress party observed: "Whatever the results of the general elections, whichever government comes to power in New Delhi, will have to cope with a very complex and tense neighbourhood."

We are, without doubt, going through turbulent times. The Americans are trying desperately to get out of the quagmire that they are finding themselves in Iraq. Saudi Arabia that provides a significant portion of our oil supplies is facing a significant threat arising primarily from the very forces that it funded to spread Wahhabi extremism in Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere.

Closer home, the Pakistani President, Gen Pervez Musharraf, runs with the hare and hunts with the hounds as he allows that Taliban leadership free access to his own country, even as he swears undying loyalty to the Americans in their "war against terrorism".

The impact of developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan has been felt even to our east. Groups from Osama bin Laden's "International Islamic Front" such as the Harkat-ul-Jihad-ul-Islami have moved into Bangladesh and receive support and sustenance in that country. Begum Khaleda Zia's Government not only fraternises with such groups, but also permits huge shipments of arms that find their way to insurgent groups in the North-East.

New Delhi's feeble protests to Bangladesh are peremptorily rejected and cross border terrorism from Bangladesh flourishes. It is obvious that we lack a coherent strategy to deal with this challenge. We would have to mount diplomatic pressure on Bangladesh to compel it to mend its ways and combine this with enhancing our covert and overt capabilities to raise the costs for our eastern neighbour if it persists with its present policies. New Delhi will have to urgently undertake diplomatic and other measures to guarantee energy security for the country in an era when world oil prices are set to rise. After nearly two decades of relatively stable oil prices that spurred world economic growth, we now seem to be headed for an era where oil prices will rise by at least 30 per cent over those prevailing earlier.

And the situation could get worse should oil prices rise to over $60 a barrel (domestic petrol prices could then rise to Rs 60 per litre), if the violence now going on in Iraq spills across the border and endangers oil supplies from Saudi Arabia.

Restoring stability to Iraq is now crucial if we are to avoid developments that could seriously endanger our economic progress. It is Iraq alone that has the potential to fill any void created over the longer term by disruption or uncertainty of oil supplies from Saudi Arabia. India shares a common interest with all major consumers, including the US, the EU, Japan and China, in ensuring stability in the Persian Gulf.

It is the fast growing economies of India and China that are now increasingly accounting for the rise in global oil imports.

Thus, while there are some in our ruling dispensation who may gloat over the American discomfiture in Iraq, the importance of devising cooperative strategies to meet forthcoming challenges in the Persian Gulf cannot be over emphasised.

The foreign policy issue that received much attention during the election campaign was the alleged subservience of the NDA Government to diktats from Washingon and not entirely unjustified apprehensions that the Americans were getting a bit too intrusive on developments pertaining to our dialogue with Pakistan.

But it is an undeniable fact that after the Kargil conflict the US has played a significant role, with some success, in making it clear to Pakistan that it should respect the sanctity of the Line of Control, end infiltration across the LoC and ban the activities of such groups as the Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-e-Mohammed.

It would be dangerous to ignore the reality that in today's world it is the US alone that wields the diplomatic, economic and military power to move Pakistan to mend its ways. While the manner in which the US Secretary of State, Gen Colin Powell, handled the issue of the grant of a "major non-NATO ally status" to Pakistan speaks very poorly of his much touted diplomatic abilities, the fact is that not much has changed since the announcement was made.

The US has a $3-billion dollar five-year aid programme for Pakistan that should not cause us to lose any sleep.

And the new dispensation would do well to make it clear to the Bush Administration that any supplies of armaments such as nuclear-capable aircraft would have a seriously destabilising impact.

There is understandably a widespread belief that Mr Jaswant Singh conducted our foreign policy in a manner that suggested he was prepared for us to be the US' junior partner.

But Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee's initiatives have resulted in a remarkable turnaround in American perceptions about India.

Our growing military ties with the US do enable our armed forces to learn more about and access the latest military technologies in today's world. The stage does also appear set for growing cooperation in areas like space. Most important, our ability to withstand American sanctions after the 1998 nuclear tests and then negotiate an end to these sanctions, won us new respect across the world. It is our ability to sustain high levels of growth and open our economy to foreign investment and competition that have made us an attractive regional partner with Asean. But we will ourselves have to moderate our virtually fatal obsession with Pakistan in the conduct of foreign policy, if we want a truly "de-hyphenated" relationship with the Americans and others.

There now appears to be a broad national consensus on the need to move ahead in expanding cooperation with China and in amicably resolving the border issue. While we should move in this direction, it is dangerous to advocate, as the Marxists are doing, that China is some form of strategic ally and that we can balance the US through a grouping of India, China and Russia.

While Russia has been a steadfast partner and friend, the Marxists conveniently turn a blind eye to China's extensive relations and engagement with the US and its continuing cooperation with Pakistan — a country that Chinese strategic thinkers describe as "China's Israel".

Pakistan's nuclear weapons are of Chinese design. Its missiles, capable of hitting Kolkata and Thiruvananthapuram are of Chinese origin. No country has done greater long-term damage to India's national security than China. There is nothing to indicate that there is any change in the thrust of China's military, nuclear and missile collaboration with our troublesome western neighbour.

The dialogue process that the Vajpayee' Government initiated with Pakistan should be pursued in a pro-active and imaginative manner. But given the efforts that our friends across the border made to disrupt the recent elections in Jammu & Kashmir, it should be obvious that Pakistan intends to continue using terrorism as an instrument of state policy, while regulating the levels and intensity of terrorism, based on its internal and international compulsions.

The newly-elected government has to be prepared to deal with these and other challenges in the months ahead. But we will constantly have to bear in mind that any perception in the outside world that we are given to U-turns in economic policy, or are set to embark on an era of populism and fiscal irresponsibility could seriously erode our international standing and credibility.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)