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Our Bureau

New Delhi , June 29

AFTER the good round of showers during the pre-monsoon period (March-May) and the opening month of the Southwest monsoon season (June-September), the country is expected to receive normal rainfall in July as well.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), rainfall during July in the country as a whole is likely to be 98 per cent of the 70-year Long Period Average (LPA) for this month, with a model error of plus or minus nine per cent. July rains are crucial for agriculture, since they coincide with the vegetative growth phase of the kharif crop sown during May-June.

The country receives an average area-weighted rainfall of around 880 millimetres (mm) during the four-month monsoon season, which includes roughly 150 mm in June, 290 mm in July, 270 mm in August and 170 mm in September. While the June rains determine the total area that is sown, crop yields are largely influenced by the extent of precipitation in July and August.

During the pre-monsoon period from March 1 to May 31, the country, as a whole, received an average area-weighted rainfall of 161.6 mm, which was 25 per cent more than the normal LPA of 129.6 mm for these three months. In the current monsoon season from June 1-23, the average rainfall at 131.7 mm has again been 21 per cent more than the normal LPA of 108.7 mm for this period.

Furthermore, 19 out of the country's 36 meteorological sub-divisions have recorded `excess' precipitation, i.e rainfall exceeding the LPA by 20 per cent of more. The monsoon has been `normal' in 12 other sub-divisions, i.e rainfall being within 80 per cent range of the LPA on either side. Only 5 sub-divisions have witnessed deficient monsoon, i.e a shortfall of 20 per cent or more. These include the geographically contiguous sub-divisions of Marathwada (minus 21 per cent), Telangana (minus 50 per cent) and Rayalaseema (minus 45 per cent), besides Assam & Meghalaya (minus 31 per cent) and Arunachal Pradesh (minus 20 per cent) in the Northeast.

With the North-eastern States receiving good rains over the last few days, the problem of deficient rains is now mainly confined to the Telangana and Rayalseema region of Andhra Pradesh, where acute drought conditions over the last couple of years and build-up of debts have led to many farmers committing suicide. But seen in totality, the country has had good rains so far, which, the Government hopes, would translate into in a bumper harvest and also have a sobering impact on the present inflationary trend in the economy.

The IMD Director-General, Dr S.K. Srivastava admitted that the monsoon has entered a `lull' phase over the last week, even while maintaining that it would revive ``by Saturday or Sunday.'' The monsoon this time arrived in Kerala almost two weeks in advance on May 18. The lull since around June 23 has meant that the monsoon will now advance over Delhi not earlier than July 4, against the normal date of June 29.

All these have raised doubts as to whether the rains may falter in July, just as it did in the 2002 drought year. In 2002, the monsoon arrived three days ahead of schedule and the country actually received a four per cent above normal rainfall in June. But July 2002 recorded a shortfall of 49 per cent, making it the worst ever in the history of recorded observations. A repeat of 2002 could be a disaster because farmers would have to go in for re-sowing, which not only entails extra cost but also raising crops of shorter maturities and lower yields.

Dr Srivastava, however, dismissed fears of rains being deficient in July. According to the IMD's latest long-range forecast update, the total rainfall for the 2004 monsoon season would be 100 per cent of the LPA, with a model error of plus or minus four per cent.

There is only a three per cent probability for `deficient' rainfall (less than 90 per cent of LPA), 20 per cent for `below normal' rainfall (90-97 per cent), 45 per cent for `near normal' rainfall (98-102 per cent), 25 per cent for `above normal' rainfall (103-110 per cent) and seven per cent for `excess' rainfall (more than 110 per cent of LPA). Also, rainfall during the season is likely to be 103 per cent of the LPA for the Northwest India region, 96 per cent of LPA for the Northeast, 103 per cent of LPA for Central India and 97 per cent of LPA over the South Peninsula.

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