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Saturday, Aug 14, 2004

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Bears reign

K. Premkumar

BEARS maintained their supremacy over Friday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradeable counters continues to remain strongly bearish. Bull domination on Monday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour.

Nifty futures recommendation: The August contract opened with a bear gap of six points and steadily lost during the day's trading. The August contract moved within a band of 23 points registering an intra-day low of 1588.10. It closed with a loss of around 17 points with respect to Thursday's close.

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The day's move had no impact on the recommended levels. The short position is now placed at break-even level. In the normal course of trading on Monday, the short position is likely to continue. However, bull domination has the potential to terminate the downtrend. Bullish trigger level for the August contract is placed slightly far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradeable list remains unchanged. The ranking of the list had some changes. ONGC moved to the fifth position and Maruti moved to the eighth position.

Except for the downtrend in M&M, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have opportunities in five counters. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in ONGC. Buying in ONGC is likely to be the best for Monday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode. Buy level for this counter is placed quite closer to its current level. Bull domination on Monday has the potential to trigger the uptrend in ONGC.

Cash segment: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradeable list. The ranking of the list too remains unchanged. Friday's market had no impact on the recommended counter-Infosys.

For Monday, the downtrend in Reliance, Satyam and State Bank is likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. A lone selling opportunity is likely to exist in Infosys. The best bet for Monday's trading is likely to be the selling in Infosys. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded price. Bear pressure on Monday is likely to initiate the downtrend in Infosys.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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