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Friday, Jan 21, 2005

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Bears prevail

K. Premkumar

BEARS prevailed over Thursday's trading activity. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bearish. Bull domination on Monday is likely to reduce the bear count by a considerable margin thereby resulting in a change in the sentiment reading.

Otherwise, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with a slight change in its value.

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Nifty Futures Recommendation: The near month January contract opened five points below its previous close and went further down by another 24 points. Thereafter, bulls made a strong comeback and wiped out their losses.

The January contract moved within a band of 34 points, registered an intra-day low of 1895.25 after making a high of 1929.00.

Neither the bulls nor the bears could gain from the day's trading as the January contract closed around its previous close.

Thursday's market action had no impact on the recommended levels. The exit level for the short position is now placed within five points from its last traded value.

Bull move on Monday is likely to terminate downtrend in the January contract. Bullish trigger level for the January contract is still placed far away.

Stock Futures Recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 tradable list. ACC, Tata Steel and Gujarat Ambuja Cement were the top three traded counters in this segment.

Except for the downtrend in Maruti, all the counters in the list are likely to be under threat.

Bulls are likely to have opportunity in four counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in two counters.

Buying in Tata Steel is likely to be the best for Monday's trading. Bull domination on Monday has the potential to initiate a fresh uptrend in Tata Steel.

Cash Segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged.

The ranking of the list had a minor change. Maruti and Tata Motors interchanged their positions.

The exit level for the downtrend in Zee Tele is placed at 163.70.

None of the counters in the list are in the uptrend. Except for the downtrend in ACC and Maruti, all the other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bears are unlikely to have any opportunity for Monday's trading. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. The best bet is likely to be the buying in Tata Motors. This counter is in the sideways mode. Buy level for this counter is placed just above its closing price. Bull pressure on Monday is likely to trigger the uptrend in Tata Motors.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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