The Hindu Business Line : Initial gains not held

BULLS were in charge of the initial hours of Monday's trading but failed to maintain their pressure till the close. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains strongly bullish. Bear domination on Tuesday has the potential to change the sentiment reading in their favour.

Nifty futures recommendation: The near month March contract opened with a bull gap of five points and went further by another 11 points.

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During the fag end of the day's trading bears managed to recover most of their day's losses. The March contract moved within a close band of 16 points. It closed four points above Friday's close.

The uptrend in the March contract remains intact. The long position is locked up with a nominal profit of 18 points. The exit and bearish trigger levels for the March contract are placed far away. These levels are unlikely to be triggered on Tuesday.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 tradable list had few changes. ONGC and Ranbaxy gained entry with the exit of ACC and Arvind Mill. Reliance moved to the third position followed by Ranbaxy and Satyam. The exit level for the downtrend in ACC and the uptrend in Arvind Mill are placed at 378.55 and 128.55 respectively.

None of the counters in the list are in the downtrend. For Tuesday, most of the uptrend counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bears are likely to have opportunity in six counters. A lone buying opportunity is likely to exist in Tata Motors. The best bet is likely to be the selling in Maruti. Sell level for this counter is placed very close to its last traded value. Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to initiate a fresh downtrend in Maruti.

Cash segment: The top-10 tradable list underwent a change. Punjab Bank gained entry with the exit of Tata Motors. The ranking of the list too had some changes. Reliance moved to the second position followed by Infosys and Tata Steel.

Bear pressure on Tuesday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list. The lone downtrend counter - Bharti Tele is likely to be safe. Buying opportunities are unlikely to exist for Tuesday's trading. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in Infosys, Maruti and Satyam. The best among the above is likely to be Maruti. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bearish trigger level for this counter is placed quite closer to the current level. Bear move on Tuesday is likely to trigger the downtrend in Maruti.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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