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Thursday, Apr 07, 2005

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Markets - Technical Analysis


Narrow movement

K. Premkumar

MARKET witnessed range-bound movement on Wednesday. Neither the bulls nor the bears could gain much from the day's trading. The sentiment reading of the tradable counters remains bearish. Bull domination on Thursday is likely to change the sentiment reading in their favour. Otherwise, the prevailing bearish sentiment is likely to continue with added strength.

Nifty futures recommendation: Initially, the near month April contract lost two points thereafter bears were not given any opportunity during the day's trading. Bulls gained substantially at the fag end of the day's trading. The April contract moved within a band of 24 points. It closed higher with a gain of 21 points over Tuesday's close.

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Wednesday's market action had no impact on the recommended levels. The April contract remains in the sideways mode. Bullish trigger level for the April contract is placed very close to the current level. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to trigger the uptrend. Bearish trigger level for the April contract is placed quite far away.

Stock futures recommendation: The composition of the top-10 active counters had a change. ONGC regained entry with the exit of Oriental Bank. The ranking of the list had some changes. Tata Motors moved to the second position followed by State Bank and Andhra Bank. The exit level for the downtrend in Oriental Bank is placed at 315.55.

For Thursday, most of the counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in six counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist for two counters. The best is likely to be the buying in Satyam. This counter is in the downtrend. The exit and bullish trigger levels are placed within a rupee from the closing value. Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to reverse the prevailing downtrend in Satyam.

Cash segment: The composition as well as the ranking of the top-10 tradable list remains unchanged. Wednesday's market action resulted in initiating the uptrend in Reliance.

Bull pressure on Thursday is likely to terminate most of the downtrend counters in the list. On the other hand, the uptrend in ONGC, Reliance and Satyam are likely to be under threat. Three opportunities are likely to exist on either side of trading. Buying in SAIL is likely to be the best bet for Thursday's trading. Buy level for this counter is placed quite closer to the current level. Bull move on Thursday has the potential to initiate a fresh uptrend in SAIL.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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