The Hindu Business Line : Season's first `low' over Bay by early next week

CONDITIONS aiding the formation of the long-awaited low-pressure system are building up over northwest Bay of Bengal with cool easterlies registering their presence in the head Bay on Wednesday.

Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), New Delhi, told Business Line that model predictions suggested the formation of the system around June 28. Models run by the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) and the US Navy also suggest the same.

Meanwhile, sources in the Department of Science and Technology (DST) has clarified that the June rainfall deficit expected is around 25 per cent, and not as reported in these columns on Tuesday.

Explaining the build-up in the Bay, Dr Gupta said wind shear values are falling into place and monsoon currents strengthening in the region. This marks a total change in ambient conditions, and will provide the much-needed push for the monsoon to launch itself into the eastern and central parts of the country, currently under the grip of a heat wave.

Things are looking up on the western flank too, with the `monsoon heat low' beginning to settle into position in the northwest. Dr Gupta expected the `heat low' to evolve fully around the time when the low-pressure in the Bay would also get activated.

According to an Indian Meteorological Department update, the depression over the northeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Saurashtra and Kutch moved slightly westwards and lay centred around 200 km west of Porbandar on Wednesday afternoon.

The system is expected to move slowly in a west-northwesterly direction. The offshore trough at sea level in the east Arabian Sea, extending from Konkan to Kerala, also persisted.

In its monsoon outlook for the next three days, NCMRWF said the system is likely to progress further over more parts of Saurashtra and Kutch, Gujarat region, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, entire Telangana and coastal Andhra Pradesh, parts of Chhattisgarh, more parts of Orissa and Bihar and parts of Jharkhand.

Heat wave conditions will prevail over parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. Severe heat wave and heat conditions have abated from east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Vidarbha and coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Improvement in heat wave condition is expected over Chhattisgarh during the next 3-4 days. But heat wave conditions continue to persist in parts of Orissa, Dr Gupta said.

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