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Wednesday, Jul 13, 2005

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Volatile movement

K. Premkumar

TUESDAY'S trading activity witnessed volatile movement. Bulls managed to gain from the day's market action.

The sentiment reading of the tradable counters stands bullish. Bear domination on Wednesday is likely to reduce the bull count by a considerable margin, thereby resulting in a change in the sentiment reading.

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Nifty futures recommendation: In the initial hour of Tuesday's trading, the July contract gained 17 points and thereafter fell around 48 points in the mid-session.

However, during the close, bulls managed to regain their lost ground. It closed with a gain of eight points with respect to the previous close.

The initial bull move initiated the uptrend in the July contract. However, this was terminated during the later part of the day's trading.

The long trade exited with a loss of 19 points. Re-entry level is placed quite close to the current level. Bull move on Wednesday has the potential to re-instate the uptrend in the July contract.

Stock futures recommendation: There were no new entries or exits to the top-10 active counters list. The ranking of the list had some changes. Tata Motors moved to the fifth position followed by ONGC and NTPC.

Bear pressure on Wednesday is likely to terminate most of the uptrend counters in the list.

On the contrary, the downtrend in Infosys and Tata Steel is likely to be under threat. Bulls are likely to have opportunity in five counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in three counters.

For Wednesday, the best bet is likely to be the buying in ONGC. Bull move on Wednesday is likely to initiate a fresh uptrend in ONGC.

Cash segment: The composition of the top-10 tradable list underwent a change. VSNL gained entry with the exit of Tata Tele Services. The ranking of the list had a total revamp.

Except for the downtrend in Infosys, all other counters in the list are likely to be under threat. Buying opportunities are likely to exist in five counters. Selling opportunities are likely to exist in three counters.

Buying in ONGC is likely to be the best bet for Wednesday's trading. This counter is in the sideways mode. Bullish trigger level for this counter is placed closer to the last traded price. Bull pressure on Wednesday is likely to trigger the uptrend in ONGC.

(Note: All price levels refer to the absolute value of the shares traded on the NSE. There is risk of loss in trading.)

The author is a technical analyst and fund management consultant.

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