The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon exiting northwest; more rain likely in South

The southwest monsoon is poised to retreat from parts of northwest India during the week just ahead, says a forecast by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

The resident anti-cyclonic circulation (high-pressure zone) over the northwest continued to persist. On Sunday, the circulation had shown signs of gaining further ground to bring more areas to the east under its influence.

This contrasted with conditions in peninsular and the east coast where rainfall activity had perked up further during the 24 hours ending on Sunday morning. This was a sign of a fresh pulse of the monsoon having set in, the NCMRWF said.

Among regions where there has been a perceptible increase in rainfall during the period are Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.

Saturday's upper air cyclonic circulation over coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal had moved westward inland and lay over Telangana on Sunday. This is expected to bring scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over Kerala, Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, south Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttaranchal, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Bihar and Northeast India.

The east-west shear zone that had set in anticipation of the fresh southerly monsoon flows had also persisted across south peninsular India. The north-south trough running from Northeastern States through Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh was seen linking up with the prevailing system over Telangana.

More rain to South: The medium range forecaster saw a cyclonic circulation taking shape within the east-west shear zone over west-central Bay of Bengal by Wednesday. This is expected to trigger a surge in rainfall activity over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, apart from Kerala, Karnataka, Konkan and Goa.

The north-south trough extending from northeast India is seen persisting in the short-term, which will sustain the scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity over south Gujarat, Maharashtra, east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

In region-wise forecast, the NCMRWF said mainly dry weather is likely to prevail over most parts of the region during next 3-4 days except over Uttaranchal where scattered rains are likely.

In central India, scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely over the next 3-4 days. Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh are likely to experience a further boost in rainfall activity after 48 hours.

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