The Hindu Business Line : Fresh `low' over Bay may bring showers in AP, Orissa

TRUE to predictions, the upper air cyclonic circulation from the remnants of a migrating South China Sea system got itself organised into a low-pressure area over the east-central Bay of Bengal by Friday afternoon.

This is expected to intensify into a depression sooner than later, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

Speaking to Business Line, he said the associated cyclonic circulation extended up to mid-tropospheric levels. The system is likely to move west-northwest and may cause heavy to very heavy rainfall over Orissa and coastal Andhra Pradesh for three days from Saturday.

The fresh `low' was the latest addition to a string of systems concurrently active over the mainland bringing fairly widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy showers over Uttar Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh. Scattered light to moderate rainfall has also occurred over Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and parts of Tamil Nadu.

Friday also saw the depression hovering overnight around the northeast Arabian Sea weakening into a well-marked low-pressure area but largely unchanged from its perch out into the sea. It is expected to move in a northerly direction.

On the other hand, towards the immediate west, the other well marked `low' traced to northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining southwest Uttar Pradesh has re-intensified into a depression on a day of seesawing monsoon fortunes. The system was located lately over southwest Uttar Pradesh with its centre close to Agra and was driving up rain to the national capital and even areas beyond.

According to Dr Gupta, model predictions suggest that the system is likely to move in a north-northwesterly direction and weaken gradually. Under the influence of above systems, fairly widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls are likely over entire northwest India, parts of central India, Konkan and Goa.

In region-wise predictions, the NCMRWF said fairly widespread to widespread rains with isolated heavy falls are likely over most parts of the north and the northwest during the next two days. The rainfall activity over the region is expected to decrease thereafter.

In the east, fairly widespread to widespread rains with isolated heavy falls are likely over east Uttar Pradesh, while it will be scattered over the rest of the region. Orissa and West Bengal can look forward to a rather wet day ahead thanks to the fresh `low' over the Bay.

Central India also is expected to receive scattered to fairly widespread rains during the next 24 hours. The wet session may temporarily reduce subsequently, only to revive Monday onwards.

Isolated to scattered rainfall activity is expected over the southern region during next three days while Konkan, Goa, Gujarat and East Rajasthan are likely to experience fairly widespread rains.

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