The Hindu Business Line : Northeast monsoon active again

NORTHEAST monsoon came back from a recess to trigger an active spell of rain over North Tamil Nadu during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning. The contiguous meteorological subdivisions of coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and South Interior Karnataka also reported some spill over gains.

Significant amounts of rainfall recorded during the period were (in cm) Karambakudi (Pudukottai district) - eight; Kattumannarkoil (Cuddalore), Kovilankulam and Soolagiri (Krishnagiri) - seven each.

A few other places in south Tamil Nadu, Kerala and coastal Karnataka also came under scattered to isolated spell of rain, even as forecasts for the next two days indicated isolated heavy rainfall for the States of Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Kerala.

In its update, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said that the upper air cyclonic circulation over north Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas, which was instrumental in causing the overnight rainfall, has become less marked on Thursday but is still persisting.

But what will drive the rains during the next two-three days is another upper air cyclonic circulation extending up to mid-tropospheric level and lying over south Bay of Bengal. It is expected that this circulation will move very slowly in a west-northwest direction in the coming days. Apart from the regions notified above, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, south interior Karnataka and Kerala also are seen benefiting from the spell in after the first three days.

Dr K. J. Ramesh of the NCMRWF told Business Line that the helpful wind shear zone has shifted to the lower latitudes covering areas like Nagapattinam and even Sri Lanka.

The western Pacific-generated Typhoon Kai-Tak had now weakened into a tropical storm on Thursday and was located over the Vietnamese coast. The storm is now expected to be of no immediate relevance to the northeast monsoon system, Dr Ramesh added. But the Hawaii-based Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has kept a watch for any sign of regeneration of the system.

In region-wise forecasts, the NCMRWF said the upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Punjab and the neighbourhood is seen moving further northeast, before weakening in the next 24-36 hours. The system is expected to give isolated rain/snow over Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttaranchal. Night temperatures are likely to fall during the coming days with the passage of the system.

In the east, isolated to scattered rainfall activity is expected over Orissa and the Northeastern States for the next two-three days. Mainly dry weather will prevail subsequently.

In the south, scattered to widespread rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Rayalaseema and south coastal Andhra Pradesh over the next three days. Subsequently, the rainfall is expected to shift over to south interior Karnataka, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

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