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Depression loses sting; new cyclonic circulation likely

Vinson Kurian

Expectations are that the coastal waters will warm up again once the rain bands move out farther into the hinterland, which they are doing now. This will leave the area open for a new cyclonic circulation from the southeast Bay of Bengal to spin its way in and evolve further.

Thiruvananthapuram , Nov 23

THE persisting cooling anomaly in the southwest Bay of Bengal forced the tropical depression to let off considerable steam over the coastal waters and weaken into a well-marked `low' off Pamban in south Tamil Nadu by Tuesday evening itself.

On Wednesday, the system got further weakened into a tropical `low' after crossing land, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said in its update.

It was located over south Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood in the afternoon.

Expectations are that the coastal waters will warm up again once the rain bands move out farther into the hinterland, which they are doing now.

This will leave the area open for a new cyclonic circulation from the southeast Bay of Bengal to spin its way in and evolve further.

According to NCMRWF forecasts, this circulation will expectedly take shape over the sea to the southeast of Andaman and Nicobar Islands by Friday.

Projections by the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the US said this circulation is likely to traverse a west-northwest direction and make a landfall somewhere on the Andhra Pradesh coast next week.

Meanwhile, the `low' over south Tamil Nadu is likely to move in a westerly direction and cross into Kerala.

Under its influence, fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls have been forecast in Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next two days.

The 24 hours ending 8.30 a.m. saw the weakening depression bring rainfall to most places over Tamil Nadu and many places over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and south interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

Fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls are likely over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep during the next two-three days while it will be scattered to fairly widespread over Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka and coastal Karnataka. Isolated rains are expected over south Coastal Andhra Pradesh.

The system is likely to weaken further and coalesce with the larger east-west oriented shear zone covering Bay of Bengal, the southern parts of the peninsula and the Arabian Sea.

The shear zone is expected to remain active during the next five days as well, which means that the rain activity will continue to persist in some form over this part of the peninsula.

Related Stories:
Cool seawaters spare Tamil Nadu the blushes
Outer cloud bands of depression touch base

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