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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , Dec. 20

AS tropical storm 07B curved back into the high seas off Pondicherry to firmly put itself on a track away to the north-northeast, fresh alert has been sounded of a new `low' converging over the south-central Bay of Bengal around the weekend.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) issued the alert on Tuesday, which is substantiated by the three-day forecast by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as well.

Dr K. J. Ramesh of the NCMRWF told Business Line that the new system would be a remnant of the tropical storm 25W migrating in from the tropical western Pacific, since downgraded into a tropical depression. The system has been tracking a straight line to the west and was traced latest to the southeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) said it has put 25W under close watch for signs of regeneration.

The southeast and south-central Bay waters continue to be warm enough (plus two deg C than normal) to host and sustain the incoming system. Besides, the east-west shear zone continues to be very active, Dr Ramesh said.

All international models surveyed were in agreement with the outlook for the system anchoring itself over the south-central Bay, although at least one tended to differ on the likely course it would take from there.

Meanwhile, the JTWC said 07B has been drifting slowly in the central Bay eastward in a weak steering environment largely under the influence of a deepening westerly trough currently digging into the northern Arabian Sea.

The UK Met Office said 07B might just proceed to thrive on the warmer waters in the North Bay and even intensify by Christmas Day around 20.1N and 91.9E (east of Bhubaneswar and south of Kolkata). But the system would start weakening soon enough. Under the circumstances, it is likely that eastern India and Bangladesh are impacted.

The JTWC outlook for the next 48 hours said the system would pick up pace in lateral movement to nearly double the current levels, before dissipating as a significant tropical storm over water - at 13.8N and 84.6E (off the north Tamil Nadu coast) on Thursday. The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Group of London concurred with the outlook, except saying that 07B would still retain its status as a depression.

In its update, the NCMRWF said strong winds with speeds reaching 55 km/hour are likely along north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh over the next 24-48 hours.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy rains are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next 24 hours.

Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over coastal Orissa, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Rayalaseema, south interior Karnataka and Telangana during the next 48 hours.

Thereafter, the rainfall activity is likely to ease significantly with the system further losing in strength.

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Fresh `low' alert even as tropical storm drifts away from TN coast

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