The Hindu Business Line : MDMK shifts camp

With Mr Vaiko walking out of the DMK-led alliance to the AIADMK, Ms Jayalalithaa appears first off the block in the race to the Tamil Nadu Assembly. For the DMK it appears to be a double whammy as now the other allies may demand more seats. But these are early days yet as there are such factors as the minority vote, the small parties and the last-minute swing voters, says RASHEEDA BHAGAT. Mr Vaiko's move will make the coming elections to the Tamil Nadu Assembly a more keenly fought battle.

NEW PARTNERS... The AIADMK leader and Tamil Nadu CM, Ms Jayalalithaa, and the MDMK chief, Mr Vaiko.

The election scene in Tamil Nadu is hotting up with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam drawing first blood, by wooing away Mr Vaiko's Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) from the DPA (Democratic Progressive Alliance). Yesterday's foes have become such thick buddies that in the space of three days, Mr Vaiko made a second appearance at the Poes Garden residence of the AIADMK chief, Ms Jayalalithaa, in Chennai on Monday. This time it was to strike an accord for two seats for the MDMK for the Pondicherry Assembly polls.

But the big news came on Saturday (March 4), a day after the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam chief, Mr M. Karunanidhi, made a public statement that the DPA could offer the MDMK no more than 22 seats. With a virtual take-it-or-leave-it situation staring him in the face, Mr Vaiko went into a huddle with his party leaders and the next morning made a journey that both he and his party would not have deemed possible hardly a year ago.

The anger, the humiliation, the shock of having to spend 500 days in prison under POTA, accused of having close links with the LTTE, were put aside. When the two leaders emerged on the famous portico of Ms Jayalalitha's residence, after a meeting inside, there were smiles all around. Relentless questions from reporters on his incarceration under POTA were brushed aside, more by a triumphant Ms Jayalalithaa, than her latest political ally.

NO TURNING BACK

After telling the media "there are no permanent foes or friends in politics", she went ahead to advise them not to look back. "We do not believe in turning back. We believe in looking at the future and the future is going to be glorious for the AIADMK and the MDMK." Both the leaders described the alliance as "formidable" and predicted that they would sweep the polls.

At the other end of the spectrum, at the venue of the DMK conference in Tiruchi, 300 km south of Chennai, the news of Mr Vaiko's exit was termed a "treachery of the vilest order" and his pictures and cut-outs at the conference venue were pulled down and destroyed. The electronic media had a field day, telecasting all that the various leaders had said at different points in time and in different situations/camps.

In terms of arithmetic, Mr Vaiko, whose party does not have a single MLA in the present Tamil Nadu Assembly mainly because he walked out of the DMK-led alliance at the last moment and fought the 1996 Assembly elections alone, managed to get a better deal; 35 seats compared to the 22 he was offered. He had asked Mr Karunanidhi for 25.

CAN DMK AFFORD IT?

The question everybody is asking is: In the long run will it prove expensive for the DMK chief to lose an ally such as Mr Vaiko for a mere three seats? And this has come after the DMK chief refused to accommodate the Dalit Panthers of India, which had first knocked on the DPA doors armed with a recommendation letter from the PMK boss, Dr S. Ramadoss. Spurned by the DPA, the Dalit party joined the AIADMK alliance.

The vital question, of course, is whether the MDMK's exit will hurt the DPA, and its joining the rival camp benefit the AIADMK? The answer is a resounding `yes'. In a way Mr Vaiko's exit could aggravate the DMK chief's headache because now the other allies will step up their demand for more seats; the 22 seats meant for the MDMK will be up for grabs.

With the MDMK on her side, now all eyes will be on the possibility of the AIADMK chief inviting the BJP. It has been a blow-hot-blow-cold relationship between the two parties. Though neither party gained through their alliance in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP, which has lost out at the Centre and has nothing to lose in Tamil Nadu where it is not an important player anyway, has already started making overtures.

THE BJP ANGLE

The former BJP chief, Mr Venkaiah Naidu, said on Monday in Ramanathapurm that the AIADMK had not invited it till now, adding hastily, "nor are we seeking an invitation".

But the same day the BJP's Rajya Sabha MP, Mr S. Thirunavukkarasu, categorically said that though there is no "political relationship" between the AIADMK and the BJP, "the possibility of the two parties striking an alliance for the coming elections cannot be ruled out."

After her rout in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, Ms Jayalalithaa has been taking a serious look at the reasons, and decided to bite the bullet by rolling back power tariff rates, softening her stance on government employees, and wooing the minorities — her latest move being the introduction of the free lunch scheme in churches. But from a political strategist's view, she also needs to mop up any extra votes that she can get from any quarter. An alliance with the BJP could affect the minority votes coming her way, but whether this is good enough reason to keep at bay a national party is a call she will have to make. The party launched by film star Vijaykanth — the DMDK (Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam) — could make a dent, however small, on the support base of the two major alliances.

LAST-MINUTE SWINGS

Though vote banks play a major role in elections, it is often the last-minute swing made by the undecided voters, who do not passionately endorse one party or the other , that wins elections. These voters tend to analyse the governance provided by the ruling party of the day. In this area, despite high-decibel campaigns by the DPA constituents against the AIADMK Government, there is a substantial section of people, even in a traditionally pro-DMK city like Chennai, which is quite happy with the AIADMK regime.

A casual chat with some BPO and call centre employees in Chennai was an eye-opener. The youngsters are rooting for Ms Jayalalithaa. Her plus points? "Look at Chennai's roads and other infrastructure andcompare it to Bangalore; without any hype she has managed to get so much investment — IT and otherwise. We're doing very well, the Tamil Nadu economy is doing very well, so where is the need for a change?"

Of course, ultimately the numbers in elections do not come from the urban areas. Will these very youngsters queue up at election booths and vote? Another segment where Ms Jayalalithaa has support and admiration is the Self-Help Group movement. Many SHG members, who have tasted economic empowerment after decades of male domination, think it a matter of pride that a woman should rule the State. All in all, Mr Vaiko's walking out of the DPA and into the AIADMK front will make this a more keenly fought battle.

PM, THE HERO

While May 8 is still a good two months away, undoubtedly the hero of the moment is Dr Manmohan Singh. The Prime Minister did the country proud by refusing to bow down to last-minute machinations by the US negotiators to compromise on the issue of opening up our fast breeder reactors for inspection in order to clinch the nuclear power deal with the US. Ultimately, the US President, Mr George W. Bush, had to tell his people that come what may he wanted the deal signed during his India trip. This is the importance of India today on the world platform, and the soft-spoken, dignified Dr Manmohan Singh, ridiculed and criticised for being a "political lightweight", by the BJP leaders, has played his role in taking us there.

Surely we need more "political lightweights" like him!

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in