The Hindu Business Line : Watch for low-pressure area extended

The watch for the evolving low-pressure area over Southeast Bay of Bengal has been extended to the next 48 hours even as a number of weather foreign models showed the prospective system growing in strength and heading north, while skirting the peninsular coast.

Update put out by the newly launched national weather portal, indiaweatherwatch.org, indicated that the pre-monsoon heating phase may have already been set off in North, Northwest and Central India with day temperatures hovering above 40 deg C.

Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and parts of Madhya Maharashtra saw day temperatures rising above normal by one to two deg C. These warm conditions are likely to extend further into Northwest and Central India over the next three to four days.

Most parts of the country are likely to continue experiencing mainly dry weather conditions. The only exceptions are the South Peninsula and the Northeastern States where isolated to scattered rain/thundershowers may occur.

Rain/thundershowers accompanied with isolated squall are likely at a few places over Punjab and Himachal Pradesh and isolated over Jammu and Kashmir and Uttaranchal during the next 48 hours.

In the east, isolated to scattered rains are expected over Assam and sub-Himalayan West Bengal. Isolated rain/thundershowers are likely over some other parts of the region. Slight increase in rainfall activity is likely over the Northeastern States during the next three days.

MAY GAIN STRENGTH

Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) indicated that the evolving `low' in the Bay of Bengal might intensify into a much stronger weather system by Thursday. Moving further north/northeast, it is seen as crossing land over the Bangladesh/Myanmar coast by Friday.

The National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the US was generally in agreement with this outlook. The system is forecast as dissipating over land by Saturday. The satellite data page of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNOMC) of the US Navy also has notified the system on its chart. It was located to 10.3 N and 87.8E (out into the sea but the same latitude as Karaikkudi in Tamil Nadu, to the southwest of Port Blair) at 6 p.m. on Sunday.

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