The Hindu Business Line : Farmers asked to defer sowing

Prevailing westerlies have now started heating up the plains in northwest and central India, with all indications suggesting that an intense heat wave may be in the offing.

The heat wave will gradually push into the east and northeast, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). As monsoon is unlikely to revive during the next seven days, farmers of the areas, where it had advanced but have received deficient to scanty rains, have been told to defer the sowing of kharif crops. Unlike in May, a heat wave in June can be really scalding, coinciding as it does with the Sun reaching its northern most limit during the northern summer (summer solstice, around June 21). Normally, it's the monsoon current and associated cloudiness that acts as a buffet between land and the superheated air. But things would be entirely different during the next eight to 10 days when the westerlies could grow to such strength as to prevent even the conventional sea breeze from setting, making conditions particularly difficult in the coastal areas. On the brighter side, the heating process could help form the badly needed `heat low' over West Rajasthan. This would go to establish the ideal pressure gradient for the second monsoon pulse to advance.

While the monsoon-friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave is expected to stimulate the next pulse, the observed prominence of the Southern Hemispheric Equatorial Trough (SHET) could throw a spanner in the works. To be benign to the monsoon, the MJO should be seen as promoting the Northern Hemispheric Equatorial Trough (NET) instead.

SHET and its activity during northern summer are inversely related to the rainfall activity over the Indian subcontinent in general and Central India in particular. Its activity is fluctuating in nature but the duration is prolonged and intensity markedly up during years of major failure. The NCMRWF is keeping a close watch on how the SHET activity is progressing, Dr Gupta said.

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