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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram , June 15

Southwest Arabian Sea is already witnessing cloudiness ahead of a revival of monsoon, prompting the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) to slightly advance the outlook for rains.

According to Mr J.V. Singh of the NCMRWF, the second monsoon pulse can roll into the West Coast "anytime after June 19". There were encouraging signs that the pulse might have started building, he told Business Line.

The Northern Hemispheric Equatorial Trough (NET) may have just managed to get a go at last, under the combined influence of the monsoon-friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave and the northward-shifting Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

With this, the east-west shear zone of monsoon turbulence would also move north and align with the latitude ideal for the onward progress of monsoon. The impending pulse would possibly track the exact course as the predecessor, but is likely to cover more areas in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh.

The cross-equatorial flows are strengthening and wind speeds measuring up more or less. But what worries forecasters mainly is the inability of upper level easterlies to liven up. An ideal monsoon setting must have an easterly jet cruising along the Chennai latitude.

Another crucial aspect pertains to the as-yet dormant Bay of Bengal waters, which have failed to throw up a helpful `in situ' cyclonic circulation. This is a must-do for the orderly progress of monsoon into the country's farming heartland.

Forecasters are also looking for clues to any buzz over the Western Pacific/South China Sea. Gains from a possible cyclonic circulation here are two fold; one, consolidation of the southwesterly flows, and outside chance of a remnant migrating into the Bay of Bengal to set up a monsoon system.

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Monsoon revival slightly advanced as pulse builds

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