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Vinson Kurian

Battering on revival of southwest monsoon

Thiruvananthapuram , July 5

A pronounced diurnal mode in precipitation is what seems to have helped Mumbai, the country's financial hub, cope with the battering it has received from a revived southwest monsoon.

In a diurnal mode, the rainfall becomes typically sustained during the day but begins to taper off as dusk sets in. It could drizzle into the night at best, but this welcome trend in monsoon rainfall helped the city drain the accumulating storm water the natural way, through the night.

Were it not for this, the situation would have been worse in Mumbai, says Dr L.S. Rathore of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). This daytime cycle of precipitation has now come to be accepted as an integral part of the monsoon system.

To move west

In another observation, Dr Rathore said convective activity to the north and south of the two monsoon systems seems to have been fuelling the rainfall intensity. But this would not last for long, with an incoming western disturbance set to cool things down in an overheated west Rajasthan and adjoining areas.

Meanwhile, Tuesday's deep depression weakened one step into a depression after sliding in overnight from Chhattisgarh to west Madhya Pradesh.

In the process, it gobbled up the resident upper air circulation over South Gujarat. The combined system is predicted to move further west initially, slipping later into a northwest course later.

Wet forecast

So south Gujarat has ceased to be hosting a separate weather system aloft, Dr Rathore told Business Line. This could mean only a slight decline in rainfall, which would sustain for so long as the fused-together monsoon systems remain in circulation. The wet session is set to hold for another three days, says a forecast by the NCMRWF.

West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa (including Mumbai) and north interior Karnataka are likely to receive widespread with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfalls during the next 48 hours. East Rajasthan is also likely to receive isolated heavy rainfall after 24 hours.

Model prediction suggests monsoon may further advance over entire east Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab and Haryana during the next three to four days.

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