The Hindu Business Line : Why did Agni-III lose its fire?

Agni-III took off majestically as the solid propellants fired well. Yet, the missile could not go its full course. What really went wrong with it, though the Agni team seemed so sure as the simulation trials were successful? There is definitely a case for conducting more test flights of the missiles to master the technologies and prove the ruggedness of the components.

India's quest for acquiring a minimum credible deterrent and arming itself with long-range, nuclear capable, air strike power, received a setback, with the `failure' of the first trial flight of its most ambitious Agni-III missile.

It could be at least six-eight months before the Defence scientists ready the next test flight of Agni-III, consequent to the mishap that struck the maiden launch on July 9 from Wheeler Island off the coast of Orissa.

According to initial data, the reasons for the `failure' of the missile to go its full course, after a smooth take-off, were a combination of control and component features not measuring up to the task. The long-range missile had, after a perfect lift-off and flight for nearly 70 seconds, suddenly developed `snags' and, unable to smoothly transit into Stage-II, tumbled off, severing links with the mission control.

Indigenous Agni-III

The fully indigenous Agni-III weighed 48 tonnes, was 16 metres tall with a payload of 1.5 tonnes. After hours of checking and cross-checking nearly 200 parameters, the missile command had pressed the okay for Agni-III to take-off at exactly 11-03 on that Sunday morning.

The confidence among the DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organisation) missile family was high. The missile was carrying a range of systems, products and components that had been developed indigenously. They were all tested and re-tested. The team had been waiting for months, after having test-run and simulated various systems and sub-systems, for the final launch.

Short-lived euphoria

It went as programmed: The missile took off majestically as the solid propellants fired well. But the euphoria among DRDO team was short-lived. After 70 seconds, the missile, just into the second stage, broke-up, lost contact with the control room and plunged into the Bay of Bengal, scientists said.

What really went wrong, even as the Agni team seemed so sure after the successful simulation trials? According to Defence scientists, there is always a gap between the actual testing and simulation. While the latter can tell you that you have a design in place, the former will indicate if that design is foolproof or error-prone. The core team of the Agni-III programme, piloted by the Advanced Systems Laboratory (ASL), Hyderabad, will now have to scrutinise all the data collected by the six radars, the different telemetry and tracking stations, and learn the lessons fast. On the face of it, the propulsion system did well, the Rocket Motor Casings performed good, the inertial navigation and guidance was fine and the on-board computer took over. "It can be easily a 50-70 per cent success of the systems as of now. The final analysis will give us the complete picture," explained scientists involved in the programme.

The two-stage, solid propellant-powered, surface-to-surface, ballistic missile, Agni, has been the `pride' and most strategic project in the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP), launched in 1982-83, to give the country the necessary strike power and defence capability. In addition to ASL, the Research Centre Imarat (RCI), the Defence Research and Development Laboratory (DRDL), the Defence Electronics Research Laboratory (DLRL), the Defence Metallurgical Research Laboratory (DMRL), amd the High Energy Materials Laboratory (HEMRL) are actively involved in the project.

It is interesting to note that the July 9 partial failure of Agni-III is just the second mishap in 10 flights of Agni, in its different avatars — Agni-I (700 km range) and Agni-II (2,000 km) — since 1989, when the first technology development flight was successfully accomplished by the DRDO.

Impact of failure

In the field of missile technology, India finds itself on tough terrain. It can, for neither money nor love, get technology, components or buy missiles from the advanced nations because of the control regimes enforced on it.

Hence, development has to be from the scratch, in which case, failure cannot be a big surprise. But, then, the failures tend to have a larger impact for countries like India, compared to the developed nations, both in terms of time lost and cost.

While guesstimates put the cost of assembling a single long-range Agni missile at Rs 10-15 crore, the equivalent system for a long-range missile in the Agni class would cost five-six times more abroad.

The real challenges thrown up by the failure are in bridging the technology gaps, and developing indigenously the components and systems. This implies delays in taking the project from trial to user to manufacture and final induction.

More trials, a must

To get an idea, the first Agni technology demonstrator was successfully carried out in May 1989, after the initial drawings were frozen in 1987. The user trials of the Agni-I and Agni-II were completed in 2002 and 2004. The number of trials was comparatively few by international standards.

This raises the issue as to why more trials cannot be undertaken. There is definitely a case for conducting more test flights of the missiles to master the technologies and prove the rugged nature of the indigenously-developed components, especially the carbon composites.

Not just in Agni, but also in Tejas — the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) — the percentage of carbon composites has been gradually increasing. The light-weight, tough composites have successfully reduced the weight of these weapon systems.

The strategic significance of Agni-III could make it difficult for India to do a large number of tests, as the delays in the first test flight itself have shown.

It is obvious that with its capability to reach 3,500 km, the country will be able to target Beijing or Shanghai; Agni-I and Agni-II can reach every corner of the sub-continent.

In 18 years, from the initial design of Agni which was able to carry a payload of 100-250 kg at a speed of 7-8 km/sec, Mission Agni has brought the country to the verge of catapulting it into the exclusive group that can develop missiles of over 3,500 km range.

But the proverbial slip between the cup and the lip has temporarily delayed this journey.