The Hindu Business Line : Time-scale modes blamed for monsoon disparities

A deep depression has crossed the southern Orissa coast and is heading west in what has become a familiar path for monsoon systems originating from Bay of Bengal to take, generating copious rainfall all the way up to Gujarat.

These systems have incidentally sent up `rain pulses' into the northwest of the country setting off wet sessions in those parts of the country as well, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology.

In this manner, most parts of Central and North India have enjoyed a reasonably good monsoon up till now this year.

All major kharif crops, including rice, maize, pulses and oilseeds, have benefited from the ongoing active monsoon phase. Flooding has been confined to Maharashtra and Gujarat while Chhattisgarh, north coastal Andhra Pradesh and east Madhya Pradesh have been spared. But there is no denying the presence of some `dry patches' in these States even as it rained heavily around.

South peninsular and north-east India continue to be either in the deficient/scanty rain category, which is now being attributed to the behavioural pattern in the two dominant scales of intraseasonal variability of monsoon - the 15-day and the 40-day modes.

BAY BUSIER

The 15-day mode has been predominating during the past month or so. This mode is associated with the `established phase' of monsoon, when the Bay of Bengal gets busier. The 40-day mode represents the `onset phase' when a monsoon pulse is driven across the Arabian Sea to impact the west coast first, before being guided into the rest of the country.

The west-northwest course of the Bay systems has largely worked to the disadvantage of the north-east also.

It is becoming increasingly clear now that the north-east and south peninsular India would contribute to a lion's share of the aggregate deficit when the season ends.

FRESH `LOW'

According to Dr Gupta, the Bay may be bracing to host yet another `low' around August 8 (Tuesday next) thanks to a remnant of the currently active Typhoon Prapiroon in the Western Pacific expectedly meandering its way into the Bay. `Prapiroon' is scheduled to cross the land to the south of China by tonight.

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