The Hindu Business Line : Signals point to weakening trend in monsoon

A new `low' has been forecast to take shape in the Bay of Bengal basin early next week, which, by virtue of the location and build features, will provide yet another signal to the fact that the monsoon is weakening.

Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology, told Business Line that the brewing system was likely to extend from the Bay waters into some part of the land as well. The special circulation characteristics will cause the ensuing rainfall to concentrate mostly to the north.

COMMON FEATURE

"This type of a `low' is a common occurrence during the weakening phase of monsoon. Rains will propagate to its north, and then go to fuel the wet session in the eastern and northeastern parts of the country," Dr Gupta said. The westerly flows over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are now set to weaken at a faster pace than expected. Models show the trend becoming entrenched from Friday, a day earlier than originally thought.

TROUGH SHIFTING

In another signal, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) indicated that the monsoon trough is likely to shift northward.

This will confine rains to within the foothills of the Himalayas and the northeastern states during the next 2-3 days.

The weak phase does not mean the rains would stop totally, Dr Gupta said.

The monsoon cannot end in August; it can go only into a weak phase marked by subdued or below normal rainfall.

NORMAL SCHEDULE

September 1 is the normal date for the system to start withdrawing from the Western-most parts of the country.

The withdrawal process will be completed by September 30. This will bring the four-month Southwest monsoon to a close.

The counterpart Northeast monsoon (or the winter monsoon) will set in by mid-October during when Tamil Nadu and parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and Southern Kerala will get abundant rainfall.

Meanwhile, Tuesday's `low' over southwest Rajasthan has shifted overnight to Southeast Pakistan and adjoining Southwest Rajasthan. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over Southwest Rajasthan during the next 24 hours.

The other well marked `low' over Northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal lay over Jharkhand and neighbourhood on Wednesday. Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls is likely at a few places over interior Orissa, Jharkhand, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh during the next 3-4 days.

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