The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon withdrawal not indicated for next 5 days

The monsoon will not start withdrawing for another five days in view of the west-northwest course, the prevailing well marked `low' is predicted and the anticipated arrival of a western disturbance from across the international border.

According to Mr J.V. Singh of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), the withdrawal process can be expected to take place only after September 10.

It would still have to contend with the new `low' predicted to materialise in the Bay of Bengal off the Tamil Nadu coast around September 11, as per updated forecasts. September 15 is the normal date for the withdrawing monsoon to stand pat, along the Jaipur latitude.

DRY CORRIDOR

Meanwhile, Mr Jim Andrews of AccuWeather.com says that a `dry corridor' is developing over Pakistan and extreme west of Rajasthan. The dryness of the northwest will hold rains from the prevailing monsoon system to a minimum from Gujarat to the north and west. This will effectively rule out the type of heavy downpour that triggered devastating floods earlier in the west and northwest.

The atmospheric pressure gradients, which must be fully developed for rain-driving systems to sustain, are also turning weaker.

These are all good tidings for the development of the seasonal anti-cyclone, represented by high air pressure and fair weather, to settle over west Rajasthan.

LARGER SYSTEM

Being a much larger weather system than monsoon, the anti-cyclone will take its own time to establish, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology. The monsoon withdrawal process is closely tied with the establishment of the anti-cyclone. But, the odd rain showers or two can put its evolution process back in reverse gear.

Meanwhile, the depression over north Orissa moved west-northwest and weakened into a well marked `low' over Chhattisgarh and adjoining east Madhya Pradesh on Tuesday. The system is likely to move further west-northwest and weaken.

HEAVY RAIN

Under its influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy showers are likely at a few places over east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during the next 24 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls will extend to west Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the rainfall belt is likely to shift into Gujarat region and east Rajasthan.

The western disturbance that combined with the preceding monsoon system to drench the higher reaches of north India is about to pass into the east. But the NCMRWF has predicted that a comparatively small successor system is likely to approach Jammu and Kashmir and the adjoining hilly region during the weekend.

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