The Hindu Business Line : The N. Korean blast and its mushrooming aftermath

The Pyongyang nuclear test will only push the world a little further towards the brink, the concern being not so much North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons as the inevitability of this capability being available on the market for anyone to bid and buy. RASHEEDA BHAGAT on the provocative act by the Kim Jong Il regime, and the world response.

The North Korean regime has gone and done it. Despite all the threats from, and rhetoric by, the United States — surely that counts for much more in the wake of an emaciated United Nations — Pyongyang exploded a nuclear device. And the worst kept secret of the troubled times that we live in is no longer a secret of any kind — that the Bush administration bungled, and very badly too in grabbing the wrong end of its self-proclaimed "axis of evil".

In its frenzied hunt for weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and the Al Qaeda operatives after 9/11, it first flattened the mud hovels of an already devastated Afghanistan, and then destroyed Iraq. The world was told that not only was Saddam Hussein the worst dictator but that he was also hobnobbing with terrorists who had flattened the World Trade Centre on 9/11; and worse, he was plotting to launch more attacks on the "civilised world" (read, the West) by developing WMD.

Inevitable attack

In the face of UN nuclear inspections Saddam Hussein continued to be defiant and refused to bow to the American government, and paid a price. Again, it is no secret that whatever his response to UN inspections, Iraq would have been attacked, not for its dictatorship, its dictator's defiance, or for the imagined WMD; it would have been attacked for its oil, and its strategic geographic location.

Three years down the line, Saddam Hussein may be in the cooler, but the motley regimes the allies have managed to put in place in Baghdad, after the rest of the world was given long and boring speeches on the merits of democracy by Mr George Bush, have speedily taken the once prosperous country to the brink of anarchy and civil war.

Both Mr Bush and his chief ally, the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, have sheepishly agreed at different forums and different ways, that the military intervention in Iraq was a mistake.

But the petro dollars are flowing in; there is no doubt on that score. There have been allegations of huge quantities of oil siphoned off or remaining unaccounted for, even while Iraqis are stand in long queues to get fuel for their cars. While every dead American or ally soldier is named, honoured and his family compensated, thousands of Iraqis are being butchered in the gory violence that has seized that country. Forget their families being compensated in any way, the dead are not even being named, and the wounded have no access to medical care of any consequence. A once proud and prosperous nation has been plundered and ravaged, and the rest of the world has stood by and watched helplessly.

North Korea's Defiance

Coming to North Korea and its defiant nuclear explosion, one expert after another on BBC and CNN has squarely blamed the US for its failure of diplomacy, not of one or two years, but 20 long years. As expected, the explosion has triggered a wave of international protests and even a lot of rage, the concern being not so much on its possession of nuclear weapons as the inevitability of the Korean nuclear capability ending up on the market for anyone to bid and buy. Just as Dr A. Q. Khan, who was proudly touted as `father of the nuclear bomb' in Pakistan, thought nothing of selling the technology to the highest bidders.

As an article in The New York Times, that described North Korea as "a starving, friendless, authoritarian nation of 23 million people," pointed out: "North Korea is more than just another nation joining the nuclear club. It has never developed a weapons system it did not ultimately sell on the world market, and it has periodically threatened to sell its nuclear technology. So the end of ambiguity about its nuclear capacity foreshadows a very different era, in which the concern may not be where a nation's warheads are aimed, but in whose hands its weapons and skill end up."

World response

Let us now look at the response to the nuclear blast by the Kim Jong Il regime. Every nation, including India, has deplored the act; New Delhi officially called the act "provocative, completely irresponsible" and expressed apprehension at the "danger of clandestine proliferation." We've had our say, even though at this point nobody outside India, except Pakistan and the smaller nations in South Asia, is interested in knowing what we have said. The two players who matter the most on this issue are the US and China.

So what was the immediate response of the Bush administration? As the top officials went into a huddle it had to say little else except that this was a "provocative act". And, taking hypocrisy to even higher levels, the US National Security Advisor, Mr Stephen J. Hadley, had the gall to point out, "We were criticised daily for being too unilateral... (in dealing with Saddam), so here we are, working with our allies and friends, stressing diplomacy."

Mr Bush's reaction appeared to be mere rhetoric, when he said that the US considered this a grave provocation and warned that if Mr Kim's government transferred its nuclear technology to terrorist groups or anybody else, it would have to face the "consequences" of this action. Strangely subdued words coming from a man who not so long ago had thundered: "Either you are with us or against us".

For a moment just imagine what Mr Bush's reaction would have been if instead of the Kim regime, the Ahmednijad establishment in Iran had carried out the nuclear explosion. There is little doubt that all hell would have broken loose and the Bush administration would have indulged in swashbuckling exercises, the hotline between London and Washington D.C. would have been burning, and there would have been some more lecturing on Islamic fascism, terrorism, and worse. There would have been talk of military offensive against the "rogue nation." But of what use would it be to attack a nation that the most prominent American daily has called "starving and friendless"?

Compared to the American response, China's has been sharper, though Beijing has clearly ruled out a military response, describing it as "unimaginable". China has cause to be disturbed at this development; the goings-on in North Korea will have a direct repercussion on its giant neighbour which has been maintaining the oil and food supply line to the poverty-stricken North Korea.

Punitive sanctions

As UN sanctions are being debated on the erring nation, it should be kept in mind that limited sanctions have already been imposed on it by the Security Council, following the country test-firing long-range missiles in July. More punitive measures are bound to follow but it remains to be seen what stand China takes on its comrade. It is not in China's interest to cripple the country and take the risk of the Kim regime being toppled. One never knows what the colour and contour of a new government can be. China has shown umpteen times that when it comes to its national interest and strategic, though delicate, ties with its neighbours and friends, it will not tolerate any aggressive stance or rhetoric from Washington.

But at the end of the day the North Korean nuclear test will only contribute to pushing the world a little further towards the brink. How Iran responds to this "brazen" act of North Korea remains to be seen. For the time being Teheran too has condemned the nuclear test and repeated its mantra of how it is against any government producing or using nuclear weapons. But there is little doubt that Mr Ahmednijad will be watching like a hawk how the world responds to the Korean act of defiance. A `soft" response will only embolden his resolve to continue with uranium enrichment and more.

But losing no time to point an accusing finger at the US, the Iranian state radio on Monday blamed Washington for the explosion, saying, "North Korea's nuclear test was a reaction to America's threats and humiliation!"

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in