The Hindu Business Line : Northeast monsoon draws to a close

India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday declared that the 2006 northeast monsoon has drawn to a close. The start of the season was declared on October 19, and stood out, if at all, for the marked lack of cyclone activity in the peninsular seas.

Whatever rain falling over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and parts of Andhra Pradesh during the season has come to be attributed to passing easterly waves. The only exception was Cyclone Ogni, which crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast after taking a circuitous route from the Lakshadweep Sea far into the south. Ogni reached cyclone strength only for a brief period before crossing the coast, but had weakened into a depression while crossing.

This is why it failed to register itself as a named cyclone with foreign forecasting agencies.

MOISTURE DROUGHT

Lack of cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal also translated into a proportionate reduction in the moisture that gets pumped into the mainland over central India. Normally, this moisture gets acted upon by western disturbances to fall as rain in the country's north and northwest.

Break with this pattern resulted in the denial of some badly needed moisture to standing crops in the region.

Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology told Business Line that cloudiness in the Bay of Bengal had migrated en masse to the south along with the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In the process, the winter monsoon in Australia will get activated further. Parts of Indonesia and the Philippines may also benefit.

The northeasterly winds over the peninsula are now headed southward in line with the seasonally migrating ITCZ, and are setting off storms in the western Indian Ocean. Madagascar and the east African coast have been witnessing storm activity and abundant rainfall over the past week or so.

The ITCZ reaches its lowest coordinates (below the Equator) around January 14 (Sankranthi) before it inches back slowly to the north. This will once again cause associated low-pressure area to move in tandem to cyclically trigger the next southwest monsoon over Kerala coast in another five-months' time.

COLD WAVE

Night temperatures have fallen by two to four deg C over the plains of northwest India and adjoining Gangetic plains and central India during past 24 hours. Some places in the Indo-Gangetic plains witnessed fog.

Night temperatures are seen falling by another one to two deg C during the next two days. The prevailing strong winds in the lower levels might help thin out the fog over the next 2-3 days.

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