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Climate & Weather Agri-Biz & Commodities - Climate & Weather Below normal rainfall likely in S. India Vinson Kurian
February-March-April, the first of a series of mutually overlapping three-month forecast periods extending up to July, will have slightly enhanced probabilities for below normal rainfall in southern India, says the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society of Columbia University.
HOTTER MONTHS
Enhanced (38 per cent) probabilities for above normal temperature also have been indicated for all forecast periods for southern India. In comparison, the North and the North-East will be better insulated from harsh weather during the period. The scenario reverses to being neutral (`climatological probability') for the rest of the forecast periods of March-April-May, April-May-June and May-June-July. This coincides with the pre-monsoon, monsoon onset and `monsoon-in-song' periods, respectively, in India. A particularly strong season has been indicated for South-East Asia (Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia), the penultimate landing point of the monsoon, during April-May-June. This should logically have a rub-off effect on the Bay of Bengal arm of the monsoon as well. Too early to take a call, is how Indian forecasters chose to react to the IRI outlook. Although weakening, the prevailing El Nino effect is seen lingering into the middle of the year. This makes any forecast risky, they said. Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology said precipitation in the post-monsoon period in 2006 (Oct-Dec) has been normal. But the situation has deteriorated from January 2007 onwards, a month noted for a lower base for normal rainfall (6 cm for Tamil Nadu, for instance). The rain-driving Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a band of `low' encircling the globe, had taken leave of the peninsular seas earlier than usual and had aligned itself farther to the south. Action is always where the ITCZ is, and associated cloudiness continues to be concentrated along the equator to this day. The peninsular oceans will have to warm up and the pressure drops suitably for ITCZ to migrate to the north. But chances for ITCZ to accentuate in this manner are remote, Dr Gupta said.
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