The Hindu Business Line : Rainy weekend forecast for North, northwest

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Thiruvananthapuram Feb. 7 Northwest India is bracing to receive the western disturbance with the highest magnitude recorded yet during the 2006-07 winter.

A welcome upshot will be the expectedly scattered to fairly widespread rainfall covering the plains, which should partly make up for the impact from an associated rise in mercury.

The western disturbance is predicted to move into the northwest on Friday (February 9) but confine itself to the higher reaches of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh for most part of the day.

The plains will be brought under the influence of the system the subsequent day onwards when Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and parts of western Uttar Pradesh would benefit.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees a massive "low" sitting over the entire belt for three days from Saturday. The system will dissipate with the western disturbance moving to the east of the country.

Dr K. J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology said the incoming system would be a "big one" with a magnitude that can trigger rainfall in the plains. Such systems have been few and far between, though their frequency has been very good this season.

Only those with suitable magnitude alone can bring rainfall to the plains, with the feeble ones confining themselves to creating weather in the hills. Resultant dry weather in the North is threatening to force a review of optimistic rabi crop calculations made largely based on improved acreages and good December-January weather.

The higher frequency of the western disturbances have also meant that the steaming front-end of the systems have held sway for unusually long resulting in more number of warm days. Rain and snow in the hills have been the only exception to this pattern.

Meanwhile, a prevailing western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining areas is moving to the east. This will let in colder northwesterlies (unlike the warm southerlies to southwesterlies) to fill the region and minimum temperatures are expected to fall by two to three degree C during the next 24 to 36 hours.

The mercury will fall to normal, but not below, during this brief period, says Mr J. V. Singh of the NCMRWF. This respite will be broken around Friday by the incoming `biggie' disturbance.

The eastward-bound system currently occupying North India is expected to bring scattered rain over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim for two days from Thursday. Isolated rainfall is likely over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Haryana, Delhi and Western Uttar Pradesh during the next two days.

Scattered thundershowers are expected to continue over the Northeast for the next two days as well, a forecast from the NCMRWF said.

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