The Hindu Business Line : Who will be kingmaker in UP?

The birth of the new UP government will not be painless. As the single largest party moves into delivery mode, the midwife might actually turn out to be more powerful than the mother. The next couple of weeks promise thrills, twists and sudden turns. As for the legislators who make it past the victory line, good times are round the corner.

As the time draws near to crown the winner of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the scene looks as murky and confused as it did before the first phase of the long-drawn-out poll process that began over a month ago.

As expected, the Bahujan Samaj Party chief, Ms Mayawati, seems all set to ascend the throne in the State, known for its bhaiyyas. And how firm or shaky that throne may be will depend on the political ideology and ambitions of the party that props it up.

No political pundit, star-gazer or exit poll is willing to give the possibility of a simple majority to any of the three main players — the BSP, the Samajwadi Party or the BJP. But the one certainty is that the Congress(I) will remain an `also ran'.

That it is near impossible to fathom what is in the minds of the people in India's most populous State, which sends 402 legislators to the Assembly, can be seen from the wide variations in the exit polls. The only thing they had in common was the agreement that the BSP would emerge the single largest party.

While the Star News-Nielsen exit poll gave it 137 seats, the CNN-IBN/Indian Express poll gave it a whopping 152-168 seats; the NDTV poll gives it between 117 and 127 seats. The BJP was given 108, 80-90 and 108-118 seats by these three polls respectively, and the SP 96, 99-111 and 113-123.

The Congress(I), despite all the thunder and fury unleashed by Rahul Gandhi during his energetic and passionate campaign in the State, is given a paltry 27, 21-27 and 35-45 seats. If a combination of the CNN-IBN/Indian Express and NDTV exit poll prediction comes true, there is just the outside chance of the BSP (with 168 seats, taking the most optimistic scenario) and the Congress with 45 seats coming together to form a government in UP, as together they would cross the 202 mark.

Alliances

Though this may not actually happen, as either party may not get as many seats, it only proves the short-sightedness of the Congress(I) high command, which did not go all out to strike up an alliance with Ms Mayawati before the polls.

If the results show the Congress at the 25 mark that it held in the outgoing House, the most likely scenario would be that of the BSP and the BJP coming together, despite earlier tie-ups having ended in disaster.

The State leaders of each of the four major parties are keeping their cards close to their chests, saying that only their party high commands can take such decisions.

The grapevine, of course, has it that the BJP and the SP might bury the hatchet and come together, mainly to score a victory against the Congress(I), but this seems unlikely. For Mr Mulayam Singh and his party, which continues to enjoy support from a substantial portion of the minority, this would be certain political suicide. On the BJP's part, if it can achieve its objective of what is widely seen as a sure-fire way of covering a good chunk of the distance towards the Delhi gaddi in the 2009 elections, by allying with the BSP, it seems more rational for it to swallow the bitter pill of bad experiences with the bahenji and join forces with her.

Bad for Congress, Muslims

But a BJP forming a coalition government in UP will be bad news, not only for the Congress(I), but also for the UP Muslims. Taking the Congress first, this will be yet another clear demonstration, after the loss of Punjab and Uttaranchal, that the Congress-led UPA has turned out to be a disappointment to the people.

Let's not forget that the Congress had emerged the single largest party in the 2004 elections, though more by default than any great sagacity or political mobilisation on its part. Yes, the Congress President, Ms Sonia Gandhi, did her bit by bringing together disparate elements such as Mr Lalu Prasad, Mr Paswan, and the DMK and its allies in the south.

But the BJP helped her quite a bit by burning its bridges with the DMK's Mr Karunanidhi and cosying up to his arch-rival, Ms Jayalalithaa's AIADMK, under the gross miscalculation that she would deliver the State to them as she had won the 2001 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections.

More than a vote for the Congress and its allies, the message from the 2004 General Election, delivered yet again by the common man, was that the NDA government had done nothing to change/improve their lives and so they were exercising the only option they had — the revolving door.

Revolving door

Voters in States such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala have done this consistently and it looks like Punjab and Uttaranchal, and now perhaps UP, have joined that club. More then voting in a particular party, they vote out the one that did not measure up to their expectations.

But for the Muslims of India, rocked yet again by the revelations from Gujarat about the `fake encounter' medium being used to exorcise many an unwanted Muslim, the BJP's becoming part of a ruling combine in UP would be disturbing news.

What we certainly do not need at this point in our development, as the economy chugs along and more and more jobs are chasing educated young Indians, is meaningless rhetoric or divisive politics.

This diverts attention from the immediate goal of nation-building and ameliorating the lot of the poor and the deprived, as energy is diverted to whipping up communal frenzy and deepening the polarisation that is already tearing apart the fabric of the nation.

Thrills and twists

Of course the birth of the new UP government will not be painless. As the single largest party moves into the delivery mode, the midwife might actually turn out to be more powerful than the mother.

The next couple of weeks promise thrills, twists and sudden turns. Only a political novice would write off the SP chief's proven ability to chip away at legislator blocks from various parties.

The BSP discovered this talent of Mr Mulayam Singh during the tenure of the last Assembly not once but twice, as BSP MLAs walked over to the SP side two times.

So, sit back and relax; the fun and the drama are about to begin. As for the legislators who make it past the victory line, good times are round the corner.

Their being packed away by party supremos, in the scorching heat of May, to undisclosed hill stations to prevent their developing a sudden passion for the other party's ideology, will be the least of the prizes for winning the election. Many more goodies are bound to come their way.

Response may be sent to rasheeda@thehindu.co.in