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Vinson Kurian

Prevailing winds appear favourable for build-up of monsoon

Thiruvananthapuram May 9 The inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the global band of low pressure, sprang to life over the southeast Arabian Sea throwing up `a trough' of `low' in the region on Wednesday.

Associated cloudiness and intermittent rain created monsoon-like conditions in southern Kerala, but weathermen were quick to scoff at any such thoughts saying that it was just quirky weather which early May is known for.

But prevailing winds appear to have already become south-westerly along the coast, which is being seen as favourable for the build-up of monsoon. The flows are more consistent and better organised towards the east and across the peninsula.

`PULL' EFFECT

Monsoon onset over the mainland normally takes place in tandem with the formation of a low-pressure area (as distinct from a `trough') over the southeast Arabian Sea, which moves north along the Kerala coast. This spinning system will `pull' the current towards the southwest coast precipitating the onset.

The India Meteorological Department on Wednesday said that it expected a `low' to form, across the peninsula and over the southeast Bay of Bengal, within the next three days. This will more or less trigger the onset of the Bay of Bengal arm of monsoon over south Andaman Sea.

MAY INTENSIFY

The ITCZ will continue to be active along the 10 deg N latitude, depending on the strength of this evolving `low'. Its `pull' effect will help sustain the southwesterly flows. The `low' was set to intensify, but its track remained unclear, according to sources who wished to remain unidentified.

Across the international border, the southwesterly flows are being anchored by a tropical disturbance in the South China Sea, off the Vietnamese coast, says the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre (FNMOC) of the US Navy. Monsoon has already set over Indochina and Myanmar.

Meanwhile, an update by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said that the Pacific basin remains primed for a La Nina.

Emerging conditions, combined with the fact that all major international models show further cooling of the equatorial Pacific over the coming months, suggest that there is a `significantly elevated' chance of a La Nina event (colder counterpart of an El Nino) occurring later this year.

La Nina has been known to favourably influence a prevailing Indian monsoon thanks to warming of the west Pacific in close proximity (contrasting with the cooling in the east Pacific). Warm seawaters aid convection and storm building activity.

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Trough of low over southeast Arabian Sea

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