The Hindu Business Line : Cyclone Akash passes; buzz shifts to Arabian Sea

Thiruvananthapuram May 15 Tropical Cyclone 01B Akash intensified into a severe cyclonic storm before crossing the south Bangladesh coast early Tuesday morning, but beat forecasts of another round of intensification and a more delayed landfall.

Akash displayed an `eye' briefly before landfall, as overnight satellite pictures revealed on Tuesday. The `eye' represents the roughly circular area of comparatively light winds that encompasses the centre of a severe tropical cyclone.

Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees a major cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea to herald monsoon onset over the mainland. The Konkan-south Gujarat area is likely to get impacted. ECMWF had correctly predicted the formation of Tropical Cyclone Akash.

STORM WEAKENS

An update put out by the Ohio State University said Akash weakened and lay as a deep depression over Bangladesh 5.30 a.m. on Tuesday. Four hours later, it weakened further into depression and lay over Tripura and adjoining Bangladesh, 100 km south of Aizawal.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland during the next 36 hours. Thundershowers are also likely at most places with isolated heavy to very falls over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.

Squalls reaching 50-60 km/hour in speed are likely over Tripura, Mizoram, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Nagaland and along and off the West Bengal coast during the next 12 hours. Condition of the sea will be rough to very rough.

Arabian sea cyclone

All major weather models show near unanimity in predicting an early onset of monsoon along the Kerala coast as well as in Northeast India. The only difference of opinion is on the pace of the flows and the extent of intensification, said Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology.

The ECMWF takes an extreme position by predicting a severe tropical cyclone developing in the Arabian Sea. All others agree on a tropical system developing, but not as big a system that ECMWF is betting on.

Dr Gupta identified the developing system with the `monsoon vortex', which takes shape during the onset phase. Its rapid evolvement and intensification is something that needs bears watching. A preparatory `low' over the southeast Arabian Sea is more or less a given. Satellite pictures already show clouds clustering in the region.

HUMID IN NORTH

In another significant development, Dr Gupta noted the unusually high levels of relative humidity in northern India for this time of the year. This had precipitated the line-up of a string of thunderstorms from northwest India to farther east into Uttar Pradesh.

This indicated the extent to which easterlies have penetrated the northern outback of India, bringing moisture all the way from the Bay of Bengal. Occasionally, the easterlies bump into passing western disturbances from the opposite direction, throwing up thunderstorms along the seasonal trough.

This seasonal trough converts itself into the all-important monsoon trough once the landscape has fully been brought under the monsoon footprint. Tropical systems from the Bay cruise along this trough to drive rain into the heart of India.

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