The Hindu Business Line : Pacific typhoon deflects monsoon flows

Thiruvananthapuram May 18 A raging typhoon in the west Pacific has apportioned a part of the southwesterly flow to itself denying the Arabian Sea required moisture to build a major storm seen developing to flag off the monsoon in Kerala.

Typhoon Yutu is expected to spin up to Category-2 storm within the next 24 hours, and would retain high intensity for at least two days (peaking to wind speeds of 167 km/hr), says a projection by the London-based Tropical Storm Risk Group. It is seen as beginning to weaken from Monday next only.

CLOUDS HEAD EAST

Satellite pictures show associated cloudiness having concentrated into east India, Indochina and strewn even further east. Typhoon Yutu is projected as taking a detour from its west-northwesterly track to re-curve into the open waters of the west Pacific and head north-northeast. The typhoon would have been of some benefit to India had it struck to the original north-northwesterly track.

The European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) has since toned down its projections for a major storm building in the Arabian Sea. In contrast, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has been consistent in its outlook for a low-intensity system developing in the Arabian Sea to coincide with the onset of monsoon.

OUTLOOK POSITIVE

The outlook for monsoon continues to be positive, said Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology. Heavy spells of rain are expected to swamp the southwest coast during the initial phase of the monsoon.

Occasional thundershowers are already being reported from the Konkan coast, and going further south to Kerala. They are expected to prevail going forward, and would help warm up the atmosphere for the impending onset of seasonal showers.

A couple of cyclonic circulations in the north and northwest and approaching western disturbances pose no threat to the orderly progress of the monsoon current from the south. Prevailing western disturbances could be a worry beyond the 20 deg North Latitude only.

This could affect the progress of monsoon from the east to northwest, but this is some time away, going by the time it normally takes to reach this latitude (to the north of Mumbai and well into central India).

HEAT WAVE

Meanwhile, heat wave conditions prevailed in the coastal areas of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, a region appearing in pitch black to match the hot dry northwest India, on the satellite map. Clouds seem to have steered clear of the region and were found concentrated out into the waters of the Head Bay.

These conditions are tipped to prevail for two more days at least, says a forecast of India Meteorological Department.

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