The Hindu Business Line : ‘Low’ weakens, may force weak monsoon phase

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept.3 Sunday’s low-pressure area over west-central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood has weakened into an upper air cyclonic circulation, and was located over Orissa and neighbourhood on Monday.

The circulation is seen as playing around the east and northeast for sometime, but its poor attributes would cause the eastern end of the monsoon trough to emerge out of the Bay and move gradually north to the Himalayan foothills.

The trough, whose western end is already lying close to the foothills, would thus heave itself wholly to the foothills, bringing weak monsoon conditions yet again to the plains and central India by September 10.

Wet weather along the west coast too would have lifted considerably by then.

BUZZ IN BAY

International weather models depicts a scenario where the Bay witnesses some activity starting from September 11, when the eastern end of the monsoon trough probes the Bay waters in anticipation of a monsoon-friendly weather system.

This will happen in tandem with a tropical storm developing in the east Philippine Sea.

The west coast, east-central and east India will continue to witness waxing and waning rainfall through the week ending September 9.

Going forward, the heavy rainfall will get compressed to the extreme southwest and southern fringes of the northeast before lifting temporarily.

The India Meteorological Department said in its update on Monday that current meteorological analysis and numerical weather prediction models suggest a gradual northward shift of the eastern end of the monsoon trough.

This will bring the rain belt active over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-Eastern States, bringing widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls during the next five days.

WEST UP TO STAY DRY

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over east Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during the same period.

But the rain-deficient west Uttar Pradesh will be left mostly high and dry even during this phase.

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Orissa and Chhattisgarh during next two days.

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