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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Sept 23 The southwest monsoon has literally aborted the countdown for exiting the landmass and is busy rustling up another wave of rainfall from the mid-south that will sashay across the dry north and northwest India.

Indications are that the rains could spill over into October, with the drone from the Bay of Bengal ‘powerhouse’ peaking once again by the middle of this week throwing up another cyclonic circulation.

Meanwhile on Saturday, the well marked ‘low’ prowling northwest Bay of Bengal intensified into a depression and crossed the Orissa coast near Puri. The system has since moved northwest and lay centred on Sunday over interior Orissa.

It is expected to crease out a north-northwesterly course to move into the plains of north India. This could be the first instance of `a well-behaved monsoon ‘low’ choosing this path for lateral movement. A flurry of ‘low’s crossing into the land till now in the season had stubbornly kept a west-northwest track pummelling central and west India with torrents to near-exclusion of the north and northwest.

The north-northwesterly movement of the present system will bring widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls over interior Orissa, Chhattisgarh and east Madhya Pradesh during the next 48 hours.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over coastal Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. The upshot is the interaction that the system will progressively set up with an itinerant western disturbance dipping unusually low to the south.

It will thus have powered welcome rains into the north and the northwest, but too late in the season to make much impression on accumulated rain deficit in chronically affected areas. Interactions between monsoon easterlies and western disturbances set up seasonal rain for these regions, but these have been far and few between thus far during this season.

On the west coast, a smaller weather system with pretensions of a monsoon `low’ has been patrolling the northeast Arabian Sea for some time now. But the domineering presence of the Bay depression to the east will prevent it from intensifying further.

Instead, it is likely that it would merge into the massive western disturbance to help drive up rainfall from Gujarat-Konkan to a north-northeast direction extending to western Himalayas. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already forecast widespread to fairly widespread rainfall for north and northwest India through the middle of this week.

According to IMD, the current meteorological analysis suggested fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Konkan, Goa, madhya Maharashtra and south Gujarat during the next two days. There is no sparing Mumbai either.

To the east, rain/thundershowers are likely at most places over interior Orissa and at many places over coastal Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh. North coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana too will get good rainfall.

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