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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct 7

A fresh ‘low’ has shot up literally from the blue over the warm waters of the Head and adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal on Sunday as the southeast peninsular sea kept itself on a boil a full week after the monsoon officially drew to a close. In doing so, the system stopped an incumbent rolling in from the immediate northwest on its tracks and caused it to dissipate. The latter had been expected to intensify on entering these very waters where it was challenged.

North Andhra Pradesh and coastal Orissa have been hammered by torrents over the past few days, but the active rain belt will now get propelled to the north eastern States, West Bengal, Sikkim and adjoining parts of east India.

Coincidentally, this phase will also see the passage of a westerly trough along the hills of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.

The net result is that Himachal Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, and to a lesser extent east Madhya Pradesh — all of which ended up with varying rain deficits during the monsoon — stand to get some welcome wet weather.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over the Northeastern States, West Bengal, Sikkim and coastal Orissa during the next three days.

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall is also likely over Jharkhand and Bihar. Elsewhere, isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast for Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, south Konkan and Goa.

On the other hand, conditions are favourable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from the remaining parts of West Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, some more parts of Madhya Pradesh and some parts of Maharashtra.

The withdrawal process is being delayed further by the moisture spill-over from the Bay of Bengal, which thrives on a constant feed from the South China Sea/west Pacific. An IMD outlook till mid-week this week said that scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely over the north eastern States, West Bengal and Sikkim.

Scattered rainfall activity is likely over the extreme south peninsula, which, a US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forecast said, would be presided over by a cyclonic circulation patrolling the Tamil Nadu coast.

In fact, the NCEP forecasts suggest that the wet cover over the extreme south peninsula would persist until October 20, the time around which the northeast monsoon (retreating monsoon) establishes itself over the southeast coast. This would need further clarification since the northeast monsoon is not deemed to have set in until such time as the southwest monsoon withdraws completely from the landmass.

In its end of the season report, the IMD observed there has been an unusual delay this year in the withdrawal of monsoon from extreme outpost of west Rajasthan.

The withdrawal from western parts of Rajasthan and some parts of Punjab and Haryana took place only September 30, at least 15 days late.

During the period 1960-2006, the most delayed date of monsoon withdrawal from extreme west Rajasthan was September 28 in the years 1964 and 1970.

In 1990, the withdrawal started as late as September 28.

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Fresh ‘low’ kills incumbent, to soak east

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