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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Oct. 16 The withdrawal of southwest monsoon made no further progress on Wednesday relative to its position the previous day thanks largely to the drag created by the rogue ‘low’ persisting over Bangladesh and adjoining North Bay of Bengal.

This contrasted with the heavy splash that the incoming northeast monsoon has been causing over Indo-China next door, with Vietnam and the immediate neighbourhood being swamped by the steamy tropical air drifting in from the South China Sea.

The ‘low’ in the northeast is expected to weaken through the course of the day and peter out into the far northeast, subsequent to which the open Bay of Bengal to the south would convert itself to a receptacle for tropical disturbances passing in from the east.

No leading model has indicated the possibility of a ‘low’ shaping up just yet to switch on the northeast monsoon along the southeast coast. All the broad troughing in the Bay would need is a passing easterly wave for things to get a move on. But this has not prevented the prevailing easterlies from setting off a wet session, intermittent to being indifferent at times, over extreme south peninsula under the benign presence of a cyclonic circulation over the southwest Bay off the south Tamil Nadu coast and adjoining Sri Lanka. The counterpart system over the Lakshadweep and Maldives islands is persisting as well.

The scattered rainfall activity over the extreme south peninsula is forecast to continue until the weekend and possibly merge into better organised precipitation associated with peaking ‘shear zone’ activity and monsoon turbulence. Both the peninsular seas are predicted to enter heightened state of anticipation.

An Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast said that the ‘low’ in the northeast would cause fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over the Northeastern States for two more days but would relent later on. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy fall is also likely over West Bengal and Sikkim during the next 24 hours.

A passing western disturbance is forecast to cause isolated rain/thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttaranchal and west Uttar Pradesh. Rain or thundershowers are likely at a few places over east Uttar Pradesh and isolated over Jharkhand from the emergence of a land-based circulation in the region.

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