The Hindu Business Line : The Kaladan Corridor and north-eastern security

We have thus far ensured, in co-operation with Myanmar, that there is no large-scale Chinese presence close to our borders. This could well change if New Delhi dithers in implementing the proposal for developing the hydro-electric potential of the Chindwin River, close to Myanmar’s borders with Manipur. Energy-hungry China could well move in to get the project implemented, cautions G. PARTHASARATHY.

Two major factors play a crucial role in the security of India’s north-eastern States. First, these States are landlocked. Their access to international trade and even trade and economic exchanges with other parts of India is, thereby, curtailed.

Second, even access by land is limited and precarious, because access to these States from other parts of India is through the narrow “Siliguri’ Corridor”, which is vulnerable to Chinese pressure, especially as an aggressive China brazenly lays claim to Arunachal Pradesh by protesting against the visit of India’s Prime Minister to Arunachal Pradesh.

China’s policies on our border regions cannot be wished away or slurred over.

Adding to complications in our north-eastern security, is Bangladeshi refusal to permit transit of Indian goods to the North-East, coupled with what can only be described as demographic invasion of our north-eastern States by Bangladeshi nationals, with separatist insurgents receiving haven and support on Bangladeshi territory.

In these circumstances, one cannot overestimate the importance of the agreement on the “Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project” finalised during the visit of Myanmar’s Vice-President, General Maung Aye. This project, with an estimated investment of $135 million, will end the landlocked nature of our north-eastern States, by connecting Mobu in Mizoram to the Bay of Bengal port of Sittwe in Myanmar, located barely 539 km from Kolkata.

While Myanmar has cooperated with us in supporting military operations against Indian insurgent groups being infiltrated from Bangladesh, this project will secure its co-operation in dealing with what amounts to a virtual blockade of our north-eastern States by Bangladesh.

India’s strategic planners will heave a sigh of relief that, by gaining access to the Sittwe port, India has also addressed its long-standing concerns about Chinese pressure to make this port available for its strategic corridor along the Irrawady River to the Bay of Bengal. This project has been handled more imaginatively than our unsuccessful and indeed amateur efforts to secure Myanmar gas from offshore fields in which GAIL and ONGC have equity stakes.

Change in Myanmar

Vice-President Maung Aye’s visit comes at a time when the emerging contours of Myanmar’s political evolution appear to be taking shape.

Having signed “standstill agreements” with virtually all ethnic armed groups, Myanmar’s military rulers have ensured that, apart from the Kachins operating on the Thai-Myanmar border, there is an end to ethnic insurgencies by all other insurgent outfits in the country.

In addition, the military Government has announced that a Constitution finalised after 15 years of discussions by a National Convention (in which supporters of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) initially participated, will be put for endorsement to a referendum, to be held in May 2008.

Unlike Myanmar’s past Constitutions of 1947 and 1974, the new Constitution envisages, for the first time, a measure of regional autonomy, with provisions for elected Regional Councils. The May 2008 referendum is to be followed by General Elections in 2010. Whether the ruling dispensation sticks to this schedule remains to be seen, as there are reports about differences within the ruling elite about the implementation of this roadmap for constitutional change.

Does this mean we are going to see full-fledged Parliamentary Democracy as we understand it soon in Myanmar? The Constitution envisages a dominant role for the “Tatmadaw” (armed forces) “to be able to participate in the national political leadership role of the State”.

This is reflected in the powers the Armed Forces have been given to run their own affairs, including the budget and in the extensive powers of the President, who will undoubtedly be drawn from the armed forces. Moreover, 25 per cent of all seats in the Union Parliament and Regional Assemblies have been allocated to armed forces personnel.

Thus, Myanmar’s transition to full-fledged Parliamentary Democracy is set to follow the path adopted over the past four decades by its two Asean neighbours-Indonesia and Thailand.

It remains to be seen how Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD are accommodated in, or reconcile themselves to, this framework, where they will face stiff opposition from the Army backed Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA).

Western pressures are unlikely to deter the ruling dispensation from following this path, though one will have to see how far urgings by UN Envoy Mr Ibrahim Gambari and friendly neighbours like India can persuade the regime to make the process of political evolution more inclusive.

Engagement with region through Bimstec

Apart from its bilateral dealings with Myanmar, New Delhi will have to play a more activist role in giving more meaningful content to its engagement with South-East Asia through the Bay of Bengal Regional Grouping BIMSTEC, which brings together Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka, with Asean members Myanmar and Thailand.

There has to be a strong push to eliminate trade and investment barriers along our north-eastern frontiers. BIMSTEC is a crucial forum to achieve this. As a first step, procedures need to be simplified and existing trade barriers removed for border trade with Myanmar.

Our private sector would also find it worthwhile to invest in the agricultural sector in Myanmar. This will clear the way for easy imports of rice and agricultural products for our north-east from Myanmar, rather than providing supplies, especially for the Public Distribution System, from distant parts of India. Moreover, we have thus far ensured, in co-operation with the Myanmar Government, that there is no large-scale Chinese presence close to our borders.

This could well change if New Delhi dithers as it did on utilisation of Myanmar gas, in implementing the proposal for developing the hydro-electric potential of the Chindwin River, close to Myanmar’s borders with Manipur. Energy-hungry China could well move in to get the project implemented to meet its needs, if we continue to procrastinate.

Indians in Myanmar

New Delhi can derive some satisfaction that successive Governments at the Centre have not allowed political populism to prevail over considerations of national security in dealing with Myanmar, over the last 15 years.

Strangely, our Communist parties purport to be supporters of democracy in Myanmar, in contrast to their “hear-no-evil and see-no-evil” approach to Chinese repression in Tibet. China will, after all, be the principal beneficiary of strained India-Myanmar relations!

Unlike during the socialist era of General Ne Win, the present rulers of Myanmar welcome foreign investment and technology. Despite the availability of facilities for investment in areas ranging from rubber plantations to utilising vast bamboo resources for the paper industry, India’s private sector has moved very slowly in availing of the opportunities for investment in Myanmar.

These opportunities could be lost if Indian business does not move expeditiously to avail of them.

But, while moving ahead with improving relations with Myanmar, New Delhi should urge the Myanmar Government to do more for people of Indian origin in that country, especially for the estimated half a million people of Indian origin who are still stateless.

We do unfortunately bend backwards to help affluent Indians abroad, but pay less than adequate attention to the travails of the poor and dispossessed.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan.)

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