The Hindu Business Line : Monsoon eyes central India, northwest

Thiruvananthapuram, June 10 A vigorous phase of the monsoon on Tuesday saw it run up to more areas on the west coast and interior east India as two well-heeled weather systems to either side of the peninsula dictated weather over the region on Monday.

Formation of a fresh cyclonic circulation is likely over northwest Bay of Bengal off Orissa coast during this weekend leading to increase in rainfall activity over adjoining east India.

Northwest and central India could also get to see the first few showers of the season from the weekend. Most parts of the belt saw back-to-back western disturbances dump normal to excess precipitation during the summer. Only exceptions were Uttar Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand.

GOOD PROGRESS

On Tuesday, the monsoon advanced into more parts of the north Arabian Sea, Gujarat and Maharashtra; remaining parts of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal; entire Jharkhand and some more parts of Bihar, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its update.

The northern limit passed through Okha, Rajkot, Surat, Nasik, Parbhani, Raipur, Daltonganj, Patna and Raxaul. Conditions are favourable for its further advance into remaining parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, parts of east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh during the next three days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Orissa and Jharkhand during the next 24 hours. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over south Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka during the next 48 hours, the IMD update said.

The Roundy-Albany model for tropical cyclone prediction suggests that a southwest-northeast oriented trough of ‘low’ would sit over Gujarat at least until June 22 as moisture feed from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal get directed into the system.

The well marked ‘low’ over Saurashtra and Kutch persisted on Monday. An offshore trough ran down from this to Kerala coast.

The US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) said that the well marked ‘low’ showed flaring deep convection near a well-defined mid-level circulation and a developing low-level circulation centre (LLCC). The disturbance lay beneath an area of good upper level diffluence to the top, with low to moderate vertical wind shear.

FRESH ‘LOW’

To the east, a fresh land-based ‘low’ has taken shape over Jharkhand and adjoining north Orissa on Tuesday. The previous day’s cyclonic circulation over west-central Bay off Orissa coast has merged with this system.

By evening, this ‘low’ had shifted base to north Orissa and adjoining areas of Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. This formation will trigger fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Orissa and Jharkhand during the next 24 hours and over Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh during next 48 hours.

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