The Hindu Business Line : Obama gazes at Kashmir as Pak and Afghanistan simmer

Even as Pakistan meddles in Kashmir, India has remained silent for far too long on the disputed border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. In the process, we have let down not only Afghanistan but also the Pakhtun people in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, says G. PARTHASARATHY.

The international community is evolving a strategy to prevent Pakistan from collapsing economically. With its foreign exchange reserves rapidly declining to a level that would meet only six weeks of imports, Pakistan is facing a situation of defaulting on sovereign debt, when a $500 million Euro Bond matures in February 2009. To ensure that Pakistan does not get assistance without undertaking drastic macro-economic reforms, the US put together a new consortium, including China and Saudi Arabia, named “Friends of Pakistan” to bail out Pakistan. Finding that even Saudi Arabia and China were unwilling to bail it out unilaterally, Pakistan has been forced to accept a 23-month standby arrangement with the IMF for $7.6 billion, under which it will have to reduce Defence expenditure and subsidies. Whether even these measures will work to stabilise Pakistan’s economy is questionable, given the country’s abysmally low level of domestic savings of around 14 per cent.

Worse still, the army is fighting a grim battle with Afghan and Pakistani Taliban in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, with virtually the entire North West Frontier Province (NWFP) now Talibanised. Key urban centres in Punjab like Bahawalpur are now controlled by gun toting jihadis of the Jaish-e-Mohammed leader, Maulana Masood Azhar. In Lahore, a restaurant frequented by co-ed students is reduced to rubble, with neighbouring shopkeepers cheering, while the Lashkar-e-Taiba’s leader calls Jews, Christians and Hindus as “enemies of Islam”.

The capital Islamabad has been transformed into a fortress, with diplomats evacuating their families and IMF officials demanding crucial talks in Dubai, rather than in Islamabad. In Afghanistan, the Karzai regime is under siege, with substantial areas in Afghanistan, South of Kabul, under the control of the Taliban, whose political leader, Mullah Omar, and military commander, Jalaluddin Haqqani, function with ISI protection, from Pakistani soil.

Rashid’s policy prescriptions

Amidst this chaos, the world is told by Pakistani writer, Ahmed Rashid, now a key adviser to US military commander General David Petraeus, that the US must “redefine” its goals and avoid targeting “local groups” such as the Lashkar-e-Taiba, and focus only on al Qaeda. Rashid proposes direct UN Security Council intervention through a “Contact Group” comprising the Permanent members and Saudi Arabia to find a solution to the “Kashmir dispute”. While Rashid wants the “Contact Group” to define India’s role in Afghanistan, a perceptive Indian diplomat recently noted: “The Pakistani argument is not about “strategic depth” in Afghanistan, rather than that as a prominent Islamic State; it has the right to call the shots in Afghanistan by determining its internal and external alignments”. Given the past and current anti-Indian role of the Taliban, New Delhi can hardly countenance such Pakistani ambitions. Rashid’s policy prescriptions, moreover, appear part of a well-crafted diplomatic drive to deflect attention from Pakistan’s own failings by diverting attention to its “disputes” with India and Afghanistan. Pakistan’s former Ambassador to the UN, Munir Akram, and other Pakistani academics are echoing Rashid’s views in the US.

US’ overly intrusive role

President-elect Barack Hussein Obama recently averred: “We also have to help make the case that the biggest threat to Pakistan, right now is not India, which has been their historical enemy, it is actually from within their borders”.

While these views are unexceptionable, what has raised eyebrows in India was his assertion: “We should probably try to facilitate a better understanding between Pakistan and India and try and resolve the Kashmir crisis, so that they (Pakistan) can stay focussed not on India, but on the situation with those militants”.

No Government in Delhi will countenance an intrusive foreign role on an issue affecting its secular and pluralistic nationhood. Moreover, the former US President, Bill Clinton, should know this from how the then Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, declined his invitation to visit Washington to meet Nawaz Sharif, during the Kargil conflict. It would, however, be naïve to treat these developments as not being interconnected as there are other recent instances of influential think-tanks affiliated to the Democratic Party articulating such views. At the same time, however, there is also said to be recognition amongst Obama’s advisers, that the best the US can do is encourage the dialogue process between India and Pakistan, rather than being overly intrusive.

New Delhi should respond coolly and diplomatically to these developments. Relations with the US have now expanded sufficiently for any American administration to realise their importance to American strategic interests.

In his letter of September 23 to the Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, Mr Obama noted: “Our common strategic interests call for redoubling US-Indian military, intelligence and law enforcement cooperation”, while calling for a “new partnership” with India.

The American corporate sector also is all too aware of the immense potential for sale of nuclear reactors, F-16 aircraft and other Defence equipment to India and for cooperation in areas such as space and energy. The point that needs to be made by New Delhi is that since the November 2003 cease-fire in Jammu and Kashmir, tensions along Pakistan’s borders with India are virtually non-existent. Moreover, confidence-building measures (CBMs), including military exercises along the common borders, are in place. New Delhi can even offer a reduction of troops along the LoC and international border if Pakistan disarms and effectively bans the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed and disbands the ISI-backed United Jihad Council in Muzaffarabad.

It is disingenuous of General Kiyani and Ahmed Rashid to conjure up mythical Indian threats to Pakistan’s security as an excuse to avoid eliminating their Taliban and other jihadi protégés.

‘Back channel’ talks

Pakistan’s former Foreign Minister, Mr Khurshid Kasuri, had acknowledged that substantial progress had been made in addressing the Kashmir issue in “back channel” talks between India and Pakistan. Dr Manmohan Singh owes it to Parliament and the people of India to disclose what transpired in these talks, based on his proposal that while borders cannot be changed, they can be made “irrelevant”.

While President Zardari appears ready to move forward on these proposals, he evidently lacks the clout to do so in the face of opposition from the hardline military establishment and his foreign office mandarins. Thus, the Americans would be well advised to follow the approach of the European Parliament, which has broadly supported resolving the Kashmir issue by “softening” the LoC, promoting cross LoC co-operation and harmonising the level of autonomy/self-governance on both sides of the LoC, rather than being intrusive on such a sensitive issue.

Moreover, New Delhi should make it clear that the Pakistan-Afghanistan dispute over the Durand Line should be resolved through bilateral discussions, which take into account Pakhtun aspirations. Even Pakistan’s Taliban allies have refused to recognise the Durand Line as the international border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Even as Pakistan meddles in Kashmir claiming it is part of the “unfinished agenda of partition” and speaks of being supportive of the “aspirations” of the Kashmiris, India has remained silent for far too long on the disputed border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. In the process, we have let down not only Afghanistan but also the Pakhtun people in both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

(The author is former High Commissioner to Pakistan. blfeedback@thehindu.co.in)

More Stories on : Politics | Foreign Relations

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page

Stories in this Section
Knotty cotton

A special Thanksgiving Day

Obama gazes at Kashmir as Pak and Afghanistan simmer

Grating for rating agencies

Changeover to IFRS is a complicated process

Go beyond financial analysis

De-leveraging demystified

Diligence in downsizing

Giving bombs a label

Cut in air fares

Bank deposits and senior citizens