The Hindu Business Line : Sugar production in UP may touch 48 lt

PRODUCTION of sugar by mills in Uttar Pradesh is likely to be around 48 lakh tonnes (lt) during the ongoing 2004-05 crushing season (October-September). This is much higher than the earlier estimate, which was in the region of 40 lt.

As per the latest information available till March 31, mills in the State have crushed 485.29 lt of cane during the current season and produced 47.17 lt of sugar at an average recovery of 9.72 per cent. It is not clear whether the sugar output figure includes the production from imported raw sugar, which would tend to raise the average recovery percentage.

But even assuming a recovery rate of 9.5 per cent - the average for the 2003-04 season was 9.82 per cent - the total quantity of sugar produced by UP mills from domestically crushed cane would be over 46 lt as on March 31.

"The figure will easily cross 48 lt by the end of the season," said industry sources.

According to them, the main reason for production being higher than anticipated earlier was the rains in February and March, which put the brakes on diversion of cane to gur and khandsari making units.

"For manufacturing gur, the baggase (a cane by-product) has to be dry to be used as fuel for burning. The rains disrupted the operations of the kolhus. This, along with various cash and in-kind incentives paid by mills to growers, has resulted in additional cane being crushed by sugar factories," the sources added.

With UP's production alone estimated to be around eight lt higher, the country's total sugar production during the 2004-05 season is expected to be closer to 130 lt, against the originally projected 117-120 lt. Moreover, the 130 lt does not include the white sugar that would be processed from the 20 lt plus of raw sugar likely to be imported in the current season.

However, it is the coming 2005-06 season that would see a real recovery. While UP's output is slated to touch 55 lt, mills in Maharashtra are expected to produce 44-45 lt, according to Mr Prakash Naiknavare, Managing Director, Maharashtra State Cooperative Sugar Factories' Federation Ltd.

During the 2004-05 season, Maharashtra mills crushed about 194 lt of cane and produced 22.31 lt of sugar at 11.49 per cent average recovery. In addition, they are slated to process about one lt of imported raw sugar.

"In the next season, we will crush about 400 lt of cane because of good rains in August-December, which has induced higher planting of the pre-seasonal crop. Besides, we see only 8-10 per cent of the sugarcane being used for seed, feed and fodder purposes. Last year, the massive drought and poor fodder availability from other crops had pushed up this figure to about 17 per cent," he said.

Even assuming a conservative 11.3 per cent recovery, Maharashtra's sugar production in 2005-06 will cross 45 lt.

With Maharashtra and UP together generating an additional 30 lt and production in Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Punjab and Haryana also likely to go up significantly because of the improved soil moisture regime, the country's total sugar output in the 2005-06 season would easily top 170 lt and probably even touch 180 lt, the sources added.

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