Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Tuesday, Oct 25, 2005
Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications Tuesday, Oct 25, 2005 |
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Climate & Weather Industry & Economy - Climate & Weather Fresh rain alert for Tamil Nadu, AP coast Vinson Kurian
Thiruvananthapuram , Oct. 24 NORTH Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh are in line to get a hammering from waves of rain bands spawned by a fresh upper air cyclonic that took shape over the southwest Bay of Bengal on Monday. This system could well be the prelude to the formation, earliest by Tuesday, of the low-pressure area already predicted by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). Dr Akhilesh Gupta, Director, NCMRWF, told Business Line that the system packs enough punch to go on to intensify as a depression. Available moisture and a decidedly supportive environment could drive it up several notches in strength; even turn it into a cyclone. But as of now, this scenario is firmly rooted in the field of conjecture, Dr Gupta added. An interesting feature about the circulation is its predicted course, which is north-northwesterly but skirting the land for the most part. It is expected to make a landfall on the Andhra coast by Friday, but not before dumping an enormous amount of rainfall over the coastal areas. Under its influence, isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall has been forecast for the entire peninsula for the next two-three days but pronouncedly so over Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh. According to Dr Gupta, the system could send the rain bands swirling as far northeast as Orissa, irrespective of the place where it crosses land. "Our prognosis suggests that north the first wave of rains from the new cyclonic circulation will begin to be felt along the northern parts of Tamil Nadu within the next 24 hours. The rains will grow in intensity, as subsequent waves roar their way north into coastal Andhra Pradesh. It will be safe to assume that Tamil Nadu will bear the brunt of the spell for the next 48 hours, followed by coastal Andhra Pradesh and possibly Orissa," Dr Gupta said. In its weather update, the NCMRWF said that during the past 24 hours, rainfall over the Northeastern States, West Bengal, Sikkim and Orissa eased a little after the trough extending from north coastal Andhra Pradesh to sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim in the lower tropospheric levels become less marked. The trough in the middle troposphere has moved away eastwards, too. Predictions suggest that the rainfall activity over these areas may decrease further, except parts of Orissa coming directly under the line of sight of rain bands from the new Bay circulation. A western disturbance in the form of an upper air circulation lay over North Pakistan and neighbourhood. It may cause isolated rain/snow over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the next two days. In region-wise forecasts, the NCMRWF said that scattered rainfall activity is expected over Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and north coastal Orissa.
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