The long return march of year 2012 monsoon may well have begun, prompting a countdown of sorts by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The long return march of year 2012 monsoon may well have begun, prompting a countdown of sorts by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

DRY WINDS

There has been considerable decrease in moisture content over extreme west Rajasthan, west Haryana and Punjab during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.

Mostly dry northerly to north-westerly winds are prevailing over northwest and adjoining Central India.

These made conditions increasingly conducive for withdrawal of the monsoon from west Rajasthan and adjoining areas from Monday.

The Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services sees ‘suppressed rain’ for most part of the southern peninsula until October 2.

But it has signalled formation of a cyclone/typhoon each during either of the two weeks ending as on date.

These storms are expected to drag the flagging monsoon flows across the peninsula to some strength, bringing some rain during this period.

RAINS FOR SOUTH

In fact, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction says rains may linger over parts of the south peninsula until October 6.

They are likely to be concentrated over Karnataka, parts of adjoining Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu.

An extended forecast for the next seven days (until September 27) by the IMD also seemed to suggest some rain for the south.

VIGOROUS IN EAST

But it sees the North-eastern States, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, east India, north Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh getting benefited.

Meanwhile, an IMD update said that the monsoon was vigorously strong over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.

It was only slightly less active over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.

What is driving the monsoon here is a truncated north-south trough of lower pressure from Bihar to coastal Andhra Pradesh across Jharkhand and Odisha.

A weather warning valid for the next two days sad that heavy to very heavy rainfall may break out with extremely heavy falls at one or two places over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall has also been forecast over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.

vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

(This article was published on September 20, 2012)
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