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Sunday, Mar 31, 2002

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Nasdaq: Uptrend to continue

B. Krishnakumar

AFTER a weak start, the market sentiment at the American bourses turned positive as the week progressed. Trading was curtailed to four days on account of market holiday on Friday.

It was a case of a mixed bag on Thursday, with Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 posting gains while the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled on a weak note.

For the just-concluded week, the S&P 500 Index declined by about 0.1 per cent while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.2 per cent. The tech-laced Nasdaq Composite Index lost 0.3 per cent during the week.

The market sentiment during the week was propped up by the flow of positive economic data. A better-than-expected increase in the consumer confidence imparted strength to the markets on Tuesday.

Technically, the Nasdaq Composite Index moved in line with last week's expectation. The short-term outlook for the index appears positive and there appears to be an upside potential of another 200-250 points from current levels.

The near-term positive outlook would remain valid as long as the index manages to stay above the previous swing low of 1700. On the other hand, a break above 2100 could pave way for a further rally towards the 2500-2600 range.

As iterated in earlier weeks, in the longer time frame, the view that the Nasdaq Composite Index would test the September low of 1357, continues to remain valid.

(Note : The analysis and opinion expressed in this column is based on the technical analysis of the past price behaviour. Analysis and price targets are based on Elliott Wave and Point & Figure techniques. There is a risk of loss in trading)

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