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I bought shares of Bharti Tele at Rs 176 and Biocon at Rs 659. Please advise me about the prospects. — V.S. Chakravarthy.

Bharti Tele (Rs 132.7): The ability of the stock is hold above Rs 125 would be the key factor determining the trend for the next few weeks. This level has provided support to the stock on a couple of occasions. A breach of this level would result in the completion of a bearish "Head and Shoulder" pattern, which would have negative consequences. Conservative investors may look to reduce holdings on price upmoves. Stop-loss for existing holdings may be placed at Rs 125. Only a close above Rs 160 would impart positive momentum.

Biocon (Rs 483): The stock got listed recently. Adequate price history is therefore not available to arrive at any conclusion about the future price action.

I bought a huge chunk of shares in Himachal Futuristics at Rs 29. Should I sell them at a loss or shall I hold? — N. Gopalakrissnan

Himachal Futuristic (Rs 8.8): There are no signs of a recovery in stock price as yet. Taking into account your entry price and quantity of holdings, there is no point in hoping for a recovery in prices. Look for opportunities to sell a significant portion of your holdings. Retain the balance holding with an objective to liquidate it on price upmoves.

I bought Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) and Vijaya Bank and intend to hold it for long term. What is the outlook for these stocks? — Suresh

IOB (Rs 44): There is a possibility of a recovery to Rs 55-58 levels in the near term. This move would, however, be viewed as a corrective rally within a bearish trend. After the completion of the expected rally, the stock could turn weak and test the recent low at Rs 36. It would take a while for the stock to resume the next leg of the uptrend. Remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 38 for a portion of the holdings. Evidence of resistance at the Rs 55-58 range may be used to liquidate holdings. A major portion of the holdings may be offloaded if the price drops below Rs 36.

Vijaya Bank (Rs 46.35): The outlook for the stock is similar to that of IOB. After a short-term rally to the Rs 52-55 range, the stock could resume the downward move. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 36.

What is the outlook for Aventis Pharma purchased at Rs 786 and Alok Industries at Rs 58? — Sadiq Pasha

Aventis Pharma (Rs 710): The recent chart pattern does not throw up any significant clue regarding the near-term price action. Considering that there is no evidence of the onset of a new bullish phase, it would be better to identify opportunities to reduce holdings.

Alok Indutries (Rs 54): The stock has been stuck in a broad trading range in the recent weeks. Only a breakout from this range would impart a meaningful trend. The recent price action does not confirm the possibility of a significant upmove. Sell a portion of the holdings on short-term spurts in price. Have a trailing stop loss to protect unrealised gains.

I wish to add IPCL and IBP to my portfolio. I picked up these stocks in the recent IPO. What is the outlook and would you suggest a buy? — Sivakumar

IBP (Rs 448.4): The stock is in a downtrend that is still not complete. A drop to Rs 330-340 is not ruled out. Though there is a possibility of short-term bounce, it would be more of a relief rally. Those holding profitable positions may dilute exposures. Aggressive traders may also consider selling the stock with an intention to buy it back at lower levels. There is no convincing technical reason to buy the stock at present rates.

IPCL (Rs 150.2): Though the outlook for the stock appears positive, there are no signs of the completion of the downward move. The possibility of a drop to the Rs 95-100 range is not ruled out. Remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 130. Fresh buying may be avoided. Those holding profitable positions may pare exposures on evidence of weakness at around the Rs 172-175 range.

I bought Engineers India at Rs 338. Is it advisable to buy more to average out in the light of the pending dividend announcement. What is the outlook for this PSU? — A. Jayakrishnan

Engineers India (Rs 249): The stock recently bounced off from the earlier lows formed at the Rs 200-205 range. A drop below this range would have bearish implications. It would be better to play it safe by reducing exposures on price upmoves. A drop below Rs 220 would be an early bearish trigger and could result in the continuation of the drop. Look to reduce exposures on price upmoves. Else, have a trailing stop-loss to protect unrealised gains.

What is the outlook for i-flex bought at Rs 862.5 and L.G.Balakrishna at Rs 25.65? — Laksman

i-flex (Rs 533.8): There is a possibility of a short-term upmove. However, it cannot be conclusively said that the stock has completed the down move. There is a possibility that the share price could retest the recent low of the Rs 460-470 range. Taking into account your purchase price, it would be safer to reduce exposures as it would take a while before the stock could move closer to this price.

L.G.Balakrishna (Rs 15.2): The stock is stuck in the Rs 15-20 range for quite some time now. A drop below Rs 12 would be a bearish sign; a move past Rs 22 would have positive implications. Remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 12. Fresh buying may be avoided. A trailing stop-loss may be employed if the stock moves up.

What is your view on Praj Industries bought at Rs 105 and Voltas at Rs 122? — Waheeda

Praj Industries (Rs 89.7): The stock recently reversed direction after hitting the earlier high at Rs 116.75. A potential bearish "double top" pattern may be taking shape. This pattern would be confirmed if the stock drops below Rs 70. Investors willing to take risk may hold on with a stop-loss at Rs 70. Conservative investors may place the stop-loss at Rs 81. Exposures may be reduced on price upmoves as the stock does not appear to be in an uptrend.

Voltas (Rs 103): The outlook for the stock appears hazy at the moment. The price action does not provide signals to arrive at near-term trend. Remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 97, as the breach of this level would have negative implications. Reduce exposures or at least have a trailing stop-loss once the stock moves closer to your acquisition price.

I hold Bongaigaon Refineries at Rs 81 and Saw Pipes at Rs 197? What should I do? — Anant Das Agarwal

Bongaigaon Refineries (Rs 60.3): The stock has broken below all crucial support levels. There is now a risk of a drop to Rs 45-50 range. The present price pattern indicates the possibility of a significant recovery after a drop to the above-mentioned range. However, only the price movement in the next few weeks would provide clue about the validity of the expectation. Have a stop-loss at Rs 57 and use price upmoves to reduce exposures.

Saw Pipes (Rs 120.2): The stock has been on a sharp downtrend in the recent months. The downward move does not appear complete. Use short-term bounce to trim holdings. A major portion of the holdings may be sold at market rate and the balance if the stock manages to move to the resistance zone at the Rs 140-145 range.

Please analyse the long-term outlook for Kochi Refineries and VSNL. Can I enter the stocks at current levels? — S.K. Vidya & K.Srinivas

Kochi Refineries (Rs 154): The stock is yet to complete the downtrend that commenced a couple of months ago. There is no reason to buy the stock now as a drop to the Rs 120-130 range appears likely. Buying may be considered on evidence of support at this range.

VSNL (Rs 139.2): The share price is likely to drop to the Rs 110-115 range in the near term. It would be better to wait for price dips before taking exposures. Existing holders may have a stop-loss at Rs 128.

Is it advisable to buy Orchid Chemicals and Wockhardt at prevailing market rate or wait for declines to buy? — Prakash

Wockhardt (Rs 273.3): The recent downtrend does not appear complete. A drop to the Rs 230-240 range appears likely. Those wanting to take exposures may wait for price downturns before buying. A move above Rs 330 would indicate the onset of the next upward move. Long positions may be considered if the stock moves past this level without dropping to the Rs 230-240 range.

Orchid Chemicals (Rs 202): There is a possibility of a drop to the Rs 182-185 range. It would be better to wait for declines to pick up exposures. Only a move past Rs 230 would impart positive momentum.

Readers can send in their queries, on not more than two companies, to

techtrail@thehindu.co.in

Queries can also be sent by post to:

Tech Trail, 859/860 Kasturi Buildings, Anna Salai, Chennnai 600 002

We would endeavour to answer as many queries as possible. However, constraints of space will limit the responses featured under this column.

(The analysis and opinion expressed in these columns are based on the technical analysis of the past price behaviour. Opinion and price targets are based on the Elliott Wave Analysis. The stop-loss level provided with the recommendation is important. The original view would stand negated if the stop loss level is breached. There is a risk of loss in trading)

B. Krishnakumar

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