Share Market Highlights 4th April 2024: Sensex, Nifty volatile; analysts eye RBI policy for direction

Indian shares bounced back from a bout of profit-booking and settled at record closing highs on Thursday, lifted by high-weightage financials and information technology stocks, ahead of the central bank’s policy decision on Friday.

The rupee on Thursday recovered 9 paise to close at 83.44 (provisional) against the US dollar, tracking a firm trend in domestic markets and upbeat macroeconomic data.

Dabur India on Thursday said it expects its consolidated revenue to clock mid-single digit growth for March quarter of FY24 . In its quarterly update, the FMCG major said that demand trends remained sluggish during the quarter under review but rural growth picked up on the back of price cuts in staples. This it said has led to “narrowing” of the gap in rural and urban growth rates. 

“With a positive outlook for the rabi crop harvest and monsoon forecastto be normal we expect consumption to pickup in the coming months,” Dabur India said in a BSE filing.

EY India’s inaugural ‘ESG GCC Report 2024’ reveals that Global Capability Centres (GCCs) are playing a pivotal role in advancing the Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) agenda for global entities. The report findings highlight that ~52% of GCCs in India are actively embracing the ESG agenda, while ~70% of these are advancing the tech agenda for ESG implementation. With insights gathered from over 45+ GCCs, the report aims to uncover pivotal trends shaping the integration of ESG capabilities within these centers.

The report highlights that GCCs are establishing dedicated teams to collaborate with global organizations for ESG initiatives, with major areas of support being in the enablement of processes, data and technology. ~67% GCCs indicate that they are in the process of establishing internal sustainability strategies aimed at enhancing their ESG performance. They are embedding ESG focus across capabilities such as project management, supplier risk management, reporting, technology, and analytics for their global entities.

Suman Bannerjee, CIO, Hedonova on expectations from the MPC:

We think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will likely maintain the repo rate at 6.5 per cent. If this goes as anticipated, it would reinforce stability in the financial markets. This decision aligns with market expectations and reflects the RBI’s commitment to managing inflation and supporting economic growth. Consequently, we anticipate it could sustain positive market sentiment, bolstering investor confidence in the domestic economy. However, any unexpected deviation from this anticipated decision could introduce uncertainty and potentially lead to fluctuations in market dynamics, influencing investment strategies in the short term.

Top gainers on the NSE at 3 pm include- HDFC Bank (2.99%), Eicher motors (2.30%), Titan company (1.77%), Tech Mahindra (1.75%), Asian paints (1.75%)

Top losers include- Shriram Finance (-2.30%), Oil and natural gas corporation (-2.23%), Bharat petroleum corporation (-2%), Adani ports and special economic zone (-1.96%), Bharti Airtel (-1.37%)

A total of 3,924 stocks were actively traded, 2,396 advanced, while 1,413 declined and 115 stocks remained unchanged where 205 stocks hit a 52 week high and 7 stocks hit a 52 week low at 3 pm on Thursday on BSE.

BSE Sensex gained 308.04 points or 0.42% to 74,184.86 and NSE Nifty rose 83.20 or 0.37% to 22,517.86.

Capital Small Finance Bank Limited reported its key business highlights for the quarter and year ended March 31, 2024, including a gross advances growth of 8% quarter-on-quarter, an asset quality with gross NPAs at 2.76%, and total deposits growth of 14% year-on-year, reaching ₹7,477.74 crores. Shares were up by 2.02% to Rs 370.90 on the BSE.

Veranda Learning Solutions Ltd’s stake has increased to 51% in Tapasya Educational Institutions. The shares were up by 2.71% tov Rs 204.90 on the BSE.

GE Power Ltd’s shares were up by 5.74% to Rs 351 on the BSE. The company received orders worth Rs 774.9 crore from Jaiprakash Power.

Suryoday Small Finance Bank Ltd reported disbursements at Rs 2,340 crore, up 39% YoY in the fourth quarter, gross advances at Rs 8,650 crore, up 41% YoY and total deposits at Rs 7,775 crore, up 50% YoY. The shares were up by 8.85% to Rs 182.60 on the BSE.

Vedanta Ltd’s, Vedanta Aluminium expanded its alumina refining capacity to 3.5 million tonne per annum. Shares were up by 3.58% to Rs 309.25 on the BSE.

Vodafone Idea Ltd’s board will meet on April 6 to consider share issuance proposals of equity and/or convertible shares on a preferential basis. Shares were down by 2.36% to Rs 13.26 on the BSE.

Avenue Supermart Ltd’s reported standalone revenue from operations stood at Rs 12,393.5 crore, up 19.9% YoY for the fourth quarter. The total number of stores was 365 as of March 31. the shares were up by 3.68% to Rs 4623 on the BSE.

KEC International Ltd’s shares were up 9.92% to Rs 800.80 on the BSE. The company secured orders worth Rs 816 crore across various businesses.

NSE Nifty was up by 0.38 per cent or 86.35 points to 22,521 while the BSE Sensex was at 74,280 up by 0.54 per cent or 390 points

KIE 

We have been perplexed by OMCs’ strong reported GRMs. In this note, we estimate GRMs bottom-up based on reported production and RM costs (excluding ethanol costs). The gap between OMCs’ reported GRM and implied GRM has widened. Based on reported GRMs and our auto-fuel margin estimates, marketing margins for no son-transport fuels have also recovered from FY2023’s lows. In other words, if one were to assume lower GRMs, marketing margins would be much higher.

Our key concern remains on the OMCs’ lack of pricing freedom on petrol, diesel and LPG, which account for ~80% of their sales volumes. With recent strong earnings, while near-term concerns on debt levels have eased, OMCs’ large capex plans on petchem and refining capacity additions remain a concern. We maintain SELL on IOC (FV: Rs115), BPCL (FV: Rs440) and HPCL (FV: Rs320).

Lokesh Machines Limited received a license from the Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, for the commencement of commercial production of firearms. Shares were up by 3.45% to Rs 437.50 on the BSE.

Nelcast Ltd commissioned a 1 MW solar power plant at its Pedapariaya Unit in Andhra Pradesh, for reduction in carbon emissions. Shares were up by0.87% to Rs 144.60 on the NSE.

Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd. partnered with MASA Hotels Pvt. Ltd to open a 300-room upscale hotel near Mumbai’s T2 terminal, featuring banquet hall, business lounge, spa, and rooftop infinity pool. The shares were down by 0.13% to Rs 420.60 on the NSE.

Aluminium futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) began its latest leg of rally in early March, after finding support at ₹200. The contract gained enough momentum and consequently, it broke out of the resistance at ₹210 this week. It closed at ₹218.75 on Wednesday.

Bharti Airtel Ltd. expanded network in Sehore District with additional sites across 973 villages to benefit 11.35 lakh rural population. The shares were down by 1.12% to Rs 1211.70 on the BSE.

TruCap Finance Limited reported it achieved over Rs 1,000 crore in assets under management in Q4 FY2024, driven by its network and focus on MSMEs. Shares were down by1.10% to Rs 71.90 on the BSE.

Redington Limited’s subsidiary, ProConnect Supply Chain Solution Limited, invested Rs 57.99 crpre in ProConnect Holding Limited, Dubai, enabling the purchase of Redington Gulf FZE’s shares in ProConnect Supply Chain Logistics LLC, Dubai. The shares were down by 3.67% to Rs 214 on the BSE.

Shipping corporation of India land and assets (18.57%), Kec international (13.02%), Jubilant pharmova (10.16%), R K Swamy (9.92%), Genesys International corporation (8.39%)

Top gainers on the NSE include- HDFC Bank (2.46%), Ntpc (1.31%), Tata consultancy services (0.73%), Divi’s laboratories (0.65%), Tech Mahindra (0.45%)

Top losers include- Oil and natural gas corporation (-2.34%), Shriram Finance (-2.40%), Hero Motocorp (-1.74%), Bharat petroleum corporation (-1.70%), IndusInd Bank (-1.66%)

At 12 pm on Thursday, 3,812 stocks were actively traded on BSE. 2,174 stocks advanced, 1,512 declined, and 126 remained unchanged. Additionally, 190 stocks hit a 52-week high, while 6 stocks hit a 52-week low.

NSE Nifty was down by 0.22 per cent or 48.25 points to 22,388.55 while the BSE Sensex was at 73,794.74 down by 0.11 per cent or 82.08 points.

UltraTech Cement Limited’s Scheme of Amalgamation with UNCL, SMIL, and MPL has been approved by NCLT, Kolkata, effective from April 1, 2023, after earlier approval from NCLT, Mumbai. The Scheme is pending final filing with the Registrar of Companies for implementation. Shares down 0.48% to Rs 9,953.90 on the NSE.

ABB India Ltd reported AquaMaster, a battery-powered flowmeter, installed first in Bengaluru, now operates in 15 cities across 8 states, aiding in accurate water flow measurement and distribution optimization, even in areas without power. Shares were up by 1.02% to Rs 6,570.25 on the NSE.

Bank Nifty opened today’s session with a gap-up at 48,086 versus yesterday’s close of 47,624. But the index gave away some of the gains and is now trading around 47,850, up 0.4 per cent.

​Suzlon Energy Ltd​ disclosed a penalty proposal from GST, Tamil Nadu, amounting to Rs 98,79,340, for alleged contravention of e-way bill provisions of the GST Act, 2017. The company has paid the penalty and is challenging it with the appropriate authorities. Shares were up by 0.57% to Rs 43.75 on the NSE.

India is likely to surpass Japan and UK to become the third largest market for Apple in terms of shipments in 2026, according to Counterpoint Research Market Outlook.

It said 2023 was a record year for Apple in India. It was the first year when iPhone shipments crossed the 10-million mark in the country. For the first time, Apple became the top brand in India in terms of revenue.

March data pointed to a sharp increase in aggregate output across India, as both goods producers and service providers noted a pick-up in growth. The HSBC India Composite PMI®

Output Index rose from 60.6 in February to 61.8 in March, highlighting the second-strongest upturn in over 13-and-a-half years (behind July 2023).

As was the case for output, manufacturers posted a quicker increase in sales than service providers, despite growth also accelerating among the latter. At the composite level, new business intakes expanded to the greatest extent since mid-2010, matched only by July 2023’s level. Demand strength in India exacerbated price pressures. 

Input costs across the private sector rose markedly, and at a stronger rate than in February. Services firms continued to see a sharper increase in expenses than their manufacturing counterparts.

The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index has risen from 60.6 in February to 61.2 in March, pointing to one of the strongest growth rates seen in over 13-and-a-half years. The upturn was largely attributed to healthy demand conditions, efficiency gains and positive sales developments. Indeed, companies signalled a substantial improvement in new order intakes during March. The rate of growth was one of the best seen since June 2010.

March data showed better demand for Indian services from domestic and international sources. New export business rose at the fastest rate since the series started in September 2014. Survey participants reported gains from Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, the Americas and the Middle East. 

There were quicker increases in output and sales across each of the four broad areas of the service economy monitored by the survey. Finance & Insurance topped the growth rankings in both cases. 

Amid reports of higher labour and material costs, there was a further increase in overall expenses at services firms. The rate of input price inflation was marked, faster than that seen in February and above its long-run average.

Nifty 50 opened with a gap-up today at 22,592 versus yesterday’s close of 22,435. But it has now moderated to yesterday’s closing price.

Among the Nifty 50 stocks, NTPC, up 3.2 per cent, is the top gainer whereas IndusInd Bank, down 1.4 per cent, is the top loser.

The advance/decline ratio of Nifty 50 stands at 16/34, giving the index a bearish tilt. That said, the mid- and the small-cap indices are in the green, broadly outperforming the benchmark.

Vedanta Limited reported annual production numbers across businesses for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2024. Aluminium production, including alumina from the Lanjigarh refinery, reached new highs, with 598,000 tonnes of cast metal produced in the fourth quarter. Zinc India reported a 1% increase in refined zinc production and a 3% rise in refined lead production. Oil and gas segment saw average daily gross operated production at 117.8 kboepd in the fourth quarter, marking a 14% decrease from the previous quarter. Shares were up by 2.39% to Rs 305.70 on the BSE.

Garment Mantra Lifestyle Limited established a tie-up with a wholesale dealer in Banaras, leveraging their new wholesale hub in Surat to expand market reach. Shares were up by 1.70% to Rs 7.18 on the BSE

INOX India Limited has been granted Patent No. 530403 by the Patents Office, Government of India for “A METHOD FOR SUSPENDING INNER VESSELS OF DEW AR TYPE CONTAINER TO STORE CRYOGENIC FLUID

Som Distilleries & Breweries Limited reported highest-ever beer sales in Karnataka for March. Shares were up by 1.85% to Rs 292 on the BSE.

Indian Energy Exchange Ltd reported 13.8% YoY increase, with electricity volumes at 101.7 BU rising by 12%. Policy interventions and increased sell-side liquidity led to a 12% YoY decline in Day Ahead Market prices, with Q4 FY’24 seeing a 15.7% YoY volume increase. The shares were up by 1.29% to Rs 145.75 on the BSE.

HDFC Bank reported growth in gross advances, reaching approximately ₹25,080 billion by March 31, 2024, with retail loans soaring by 108.9%. Deposits also surged to about ₹23,800 billion, showing a 26.4% increase, while CASA deposits reached ₹9,090 billion, reflecting an 8.7% rise. Shares were up by 2.42% to Rs 1518.50 on the BSE.

Organic Recycling Systems Limited entered into a Memorandum of Agreement with BioCatalyst, the authorized Middle East distributor and service provider for Bio Organic Catalyst Inc., headquartered in California, USA. The shares were down by 3.38% to Rs 211.55 on the BSE.

Major gainers on the NSE at 9.35 am include- HDFC Bank (2.23%), Ntpc (1.48%), Hindalco industries (1.28%), Divis Laboratories (1.01%), Axis Bank (0.85%)

Major losers include- HCl technologies (-0.80%), Hero motocorp (-0.70%), Oil and natural gas corporation (-0.76%), IndusInd Bank (-0.74%), Bharti Airtel (-0.62%)

At 9:35 am on Thursday, 3,058 stocks were actively traded on BSE. Of these, 2,494 advanced, 495 declined, and 69 remained unchanged. Additionally, 119 stocks hit a 52-week high, while 3 stocks hit a 52-week low.

NSE Nifty was up by 0.22 per cent or 49.85 points to 22,484 while the BSE Sensex was at 74,118 up by 0.37 per cent or 241.76 points.

BANK NIFTY has closed higher at 3 weeks high with positive momentum led by PSU Banks and index pivotal. On the higher side the all time high at 48,600 will act as resistance while on the downside support has moved higher to 47,100 levels. RSI is trending above the average line and the intraday weakness has tested the lower band of the range. Bank Nifty highest call OI is at 48,000 levels while on the downside put OI is at 47,000 levels for the weekly expiry.

NIFTY-50 has closed in a doji candle with a lower top near the higher end of the range and can expect some retracement to test 22,200 levels. The hourly charts have being overbought and the weekly pivot resistance of 22,550 will act as breakout for a target of 22,800 levels. RSI and other technical indicators are mixed from current levels and we expect vitality with respect to the weekly expiry. Highest call OI has moved higher to 22,700 strike while on the downside the highest put OI is at 22,300 for the weekly expiry. 

CRUDEOIL

“Crude oil extended gains and sustained above 5-month highs due to geo-political tensions in the Middle-East and supply worries from Russia. Tensions escalated in the region after the Israeli air strike on the Iranian embassy killed its top officials. Russian supply is already tight due to OPEC+ output compliance and supply concerns from oil refineries after last month’s Ukrainian attack. Chinese economic data released this week is also better than expected and supports oil prices. However, an increase in the U.S. oil stocks capped gains. As per the U.S. EIA, crude oil inventories in the U.S. jumped by 3.2 million barrels against expected decline of 1.5 million barrels.

Technically, crude oil is having support at $84.20–83.40 and resistance is at $85.90-86.70 today’s session. In INR crude oil has support at Rs7,040-6,940 while resistance at Rs 7,215-7,280.

BULLION

“Gold and silver prices extended their strong show in international markets as the yellow bullion hit another record high to close above $2,300 per ounce , while silver prices hit a two-year high of $27.00. Safe-haven demand for both metals continued amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while bullish charts are also pushing the technical traders to the long side of the two precious metals.

Buoyancy in gold prices was seen as the Fed chairman in his speech stated that policy rates are at the peak for this cycle. Euro-zone inflation also cooled off in March to 2.4% against 2.8% in February. An earthquake in the Taiwan and geo-political tensions in the middle-east also supported safe-haven demand of precious metals.

Gold has support at $2282-2264 while resistance at $2322-2340. Silver has support at $26.90-26.72 while resistance is at $27.42-27.60. In INR gold has support at Rs69,740-69,540, while resistance at Rs 70,380, 70,620. Silver has support at Rs78,440-77,880, while resistance at Rs79,840, 80,580.”

There has been a moderation in order inflows in 4QFY24 owing to the impending election cycle. However, for key verticals such as renewable energy, power T&D, defense, railways, metro and water, order inflows have been steady overall in FY24 thanks to the government’s continued thrust on capex.

On the private side, green shoots are visible and the ordering momentum is expected to gather steam in the post-election period, which should result in valuation re-rating for the entire sector.

We believe that strong order books of the companies should provide healthy revenue visibility. We expect 15% YoY growth in execution, 25bp YoY contraction in EBITDA margin and 5% YoY growth in PAT for 4QFY24 for our coverage universe. ABB, LT and KOEL remain our top picks in the sector

Turmeric prices have dropped from the highs of nearly ₹20,000 a quintal a few weeks ago in the futures market but they are likely to rise again later this year, traders and analysts say.

“Prices (in the futures market) have dropped 10-15 per cent to levels of ₹16,500-17,000 currently after having increased to nearly ₹20,000 a quintal. The downside may be limited not below ₹15,000. But prices will likely gain after July,” said Ankit Agarwal, Director at Erode-based Amar Agarwal Foods India Ltd.

Drugmaker Lupin Limited has appointed Dr Ranjana Pathak as Chief Quality Officer, succeeding Johnny Mikell who will be retiring, the company said.

With over three decades of industry experience, Pathak will oversee all aspects of quality and regulatory compliance for Lupin’s global operations. She comes with experience across generic and branded medicines across dosage platforms including injectables, inhalation products and biologics, Lupin said.

➡️Posts highest ever total volume of 110 BU in FY24, up 14% YoY

➡️March total volumes up 6% YoY at 9,785 MU

Q4 total volumes up 16% YoY at 30,140 MU

Co Says | #Government measures resulted in improved sell side liquidity on the exchange

Crude oil futures traded higher on Thursday morning as the OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) meeting decided to continue with the present production output cuts. At 9.08 am on Thursday, June Brent oil futures were at $89.69, up by 0.38 per cent, and May crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $85.78, up by 0.41 per cent. April crude oil futures were trading at ₹7156 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Thursday morning against the previous close of ₹7162, down by 0.08 per cent, and May futures were trading at ₹7115 against the previous close of ₹7121, down by 0.08 per cent.

Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, opened firmly on global cues. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 411.02 points to 74,287.84 in early trade. The NSE Nifty gained 143.25 points to 22,577.90. Analysts expect the consolidation phase to continue due to the lack of triggers. The focus is on the RBI monetary policy outcome on Friday, especially the central bank’s comments. 

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank’s rate-setting panel started its three-day deliberations on the next monetary policy set amid expectations that the central bank would once again keep the key interest rate unchanged and focus more on inflation control as concerns over economic growth are decreasing, said Emkay Global Financial.

“We think the RBI’s tone will slowly tiptoe to ‘Gracklish’ from the usual ‘Hawk-Dove’ signaling, implying a non-committal stance and limited definite forward guidance ahead. The fluidity of global narratives and policy repricing, in conjunction with the near-term problem-of-plenty on INR/bonds, could make it arduous for the RBI to find a balance in its policy biases,” the domestic broking firm said.

Meanwhile, Nifty futures at Gift Nifty are ruling at 22,600 against the Nifty April futures price of 22,542, signalling a gap-up opening of 50-60 points.

While the upcoming policy may not see material changes in the RBI’s macro assessment, issues like the case and timing of a policy pivot/stance change, factors influencing liquidity management ahead, and, of course, assessing which part of the yield curve has the maximum juice, etc., would be key for markets.

“While bull-steepening looks to be a popular trade, consistent repricing of Fed cuts could spill over into the RBI’s reaction function and will be cyclically noisy for bonds/FX,” it added.

Meanwhile, Asian equity indices are trading in the green zone, though Chinese, Thai, and Taiwanese markets are shut today due to a holiday. US stocks ended mixed overnight amidst uncertainty over interest rates, especially ahead of key labour market data and Federal Reserve comments.

Ashwin Ramani, Derivatives & Technical Analyst, Samco Securities, said: Nifty shrugged off its initial weakness and rose steadily, making an Intraday high of 22,521 before profit booking dragged the Index down, closing 19 points lower at 22,435.

The India VIX, known as the fear indicator, fell 2.40 per cent on an Intraday basis and closed at 11.37. It fell for the third consecutive day, comforting the bulls.

“Strong put writing was observed at the 22,400 Strike in Nifty. This led to the steady up move in the Index on Intraday basis. However, Nifty failed to close above the 22,500 level for the fourth consecutive day. Nifty is unlikely to move up unless call writers exit from the 22,500 Strike in Nifty,” he said.

After registering a new high of 22530, Nifty has been consolidating in a range since the last three sessions, said Ruchit Jain, Lead Research at 5paisa.com. The correction in the global bourses, rising crude oil prices, rise in bond yields, and the RBI policy announcement towards the end of this week may have led to some uncertainty and, hence, a consolidation.

“However, the index has not breached any support and in fact the broader markets have been doing well due to which the market breadth remains positive,” he further said.

According to Sheersham Gupta, Director and Senior Technical Analyst at Rupeezy, the weekly open interest build-up and max pain data suggest a period of reduced volatility in the Nifty over the next few days.

The public issue of Bharti Hexacom was subscribed 0.34 time at the end of Day 1 issue opening on Wednesday. The ₹4,275-crore issue, which opened at a price band of ₹542-570, received bids for 1.41 crore shares against an offer of 4.12 crore shares (net-off anchor portion).

The IPO closes on April 5 (Friday) and the minimum lot size is 26 shares.

Initiate OW, TP Rs 7000

Expect rev to grow at 13% over FY24-26 with 140bps margin expansion from consistent execution in sales & operating leverage

Resulting 21% FY24E-26E earnings CAGR places it 11% ahead of large-cap peers & as fastest behind PSYS

STK underperformed NSEIT/mid-caps by 11%/6% YTD after announcing a potential placement & extension of its ESOP

This could dilute FY25E margins/EPS by 100bps/7%

16% share decline over past month appears to fully bake this in

Upgrade Persistent to OW from Neutral, TP raised to Rs 4400

Upgrade LTMIndtree to Neutral from UW, TP to Rs 5200

Upgrade KPIT Tech to Neutral from UW, TP Rs 1400

INFO, PSYS, LTTS are our key OWs

Demand environment moved sideways since reaching a bottom in 2HCY23 with no perceptible improvement not only in 4Q but also into 1QFY25

Likely to result in poor 4Q exit rates &deflate FY25 guidance

FY25 rev guidance of 2-4% at Infy & 4-6% at HCL could surprise investors

Expect mid-caps to outperform scale IT firms & ERDs will outperform IT firms.

Tactically, non-discretionary heavy portfolios (N-rated TCS, MPHL) could outperform discretionary (OW-rated INFO, & N rated LTIM, WPRO) until recovery picks up in 2HCY24

GS on Pipe Cos

Initiate Buy on Astral, TP Rs 2300

Initiate Buy on Prince Pipes, TP Rs 720

Real Estate TAM for Pipes to grow at 14% CAGR in FY24-FY28 & profit pool at 17% CAGR

Overall Pipe sector TAM to reach $7.5bn by FY28

from $4.5bn 

Astral - Like its high exposure to RE sector & to CPVC & strategic capacity expansion in higher ROCE Pipes segment

Prince Pipes - Like its partnership with Lubrizol, shifting focus towards high-value products & ‘RE Projects’ & professionalizing management structure

Bodhi Tree Multimedia Ltd

Stock Split Rs.10/- to Rs.1/-

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 180.25

Ex - Stock Split 05 April 2024 (Tomorrow)

Last day trade for before split Today

Ex-Dividend 05 April 2024 (Tomorrow)

Last date for Cum-Dividend Today

Esab India Ltd.

Dividend Per Share Rs.24

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 5324.55

Visco Trade Associates Ltd

Dividend Per Share Rs.1

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 259.15

GS on Astral Pipes: Initiate Buy on Company, target price at Rs 2300/Sh (Positive) 

GS on Prince Pipes: Initiate Buy on Company, target price at Rs 720/Sh (Positive) 

JP Morgan on Coforge: Initiate Overweight on Company, target price at Rs 7000/sh (Positive) 

JP Morgan on Persistent: Upgrades to Overweight on Company, raise target price at Rs 4400/sh (Positive) 

JP Morgan on KPIT Tech: Upgrades to Neutral on Company, raise target price at Rs 1400/sh (Positive) 

JP Morgan on TCS: Maintain Neutral on Company, raise target price at Rs 4000/sh (Positive) 

JP Morgan on Infosys: Maintain Overweight on Company, target price at Rs 1800/sh (Positive) 

JP Morgan on LTTS: Maintain Overweight on Company, raise target price at Rs 5900/sh (Positive) 

JP Morgan on Cyient: Maintain Overweight on Company, target price at Rs 2600/sh (Positive) 

MS on DMart: Maintain Overweight on Company, target price at Rs 4695/sh (Neutral) 

Nomura on Federal Bank: Maintain Buy on Bank, target price at Rs 190/Sh (Positive) 

MS on Federal Bank: Maintain Equal weight on Bank, target price at Rs 165/Sh (Neutral) 

Citi on Federal Bank: Maintain Sell on Bank, target price at Rs 135/Sh (Neutral) 

Citi on RBL Bank: Maintain Sell on Bank, target price at Rs 257/Sh (Neutral) 

MS on RBL Bank: Maintain Underweight on Bank, target price at Rs 250/Sh (Neutral) 

MS on L&T FH: Maintain Underweight on Company, target price at Rs 129/Sh (Neutral) 

MS on Yes Bank: Maintain Underweight on Bank, target price at Rs 16.5/Sh (Neutral) 

Macquarie on Dabur: Maintain Neutral on Company, cut target price at Rs 570/Sh (Neutral) 

Macquarie on HUL: Maintain Neutral on Company, cut target price at Rs 2850/Sh (Neutral) 

Macquarie on Marico: Maintain Neutral on Company, cut target price at Rs 600/Sh (Neutral) 

Macquarie on Britannia: Maintain Neutral on Company, cut target price at Rs 4500/Sh (Neutral) 

Macquarie on DMart: Maintain Outperform on Company, target price at Rs 4500/sh (Neutral) 

JP Morgan on LTIM: Upgrades to Neutral on Company, cut target price at Rs 5200/sh (Positive) 

JP Morgan on HCL Tech: Maintain Neutral on Company, cut target price at Rs 1480/sh (Neutral) 

JP Morgan on Wipro: Maintain Neutral on Company, cut target price at Rs 480/sh (Neutral) 

JP Morgan on Tech Mah: Maintain Underweight on Company, cut target price at Rs 1050/sh (Neutral) 

JP Morgan on MPhasis: Maintain Neutral on Company, target price at Rs 2600/sh (Neutral) 

JP Morgan on Tata Tech: Maintain Underweight on Company, target price at Rs 800/sh (Neutral) 

JP Morgan on Tata Elxsi: Maintain Underweight on Company, target price at Rs 6000/sh (Neutral)

Mid-teens growth revival expected FY25E onwards

TARGET PRICE (Rs) : NA

We met Gurdeep Soni, Chairman & MD, Uniparts, and visited their Noida plant. KTAs: a) Company expects a healthy mid-teens organic growth in FY25, with the end-user segment decline moderating to 5-6% (FY24: 12-13%) amid order execution of Rs2bn (Rs5bn worth order wins), incl. via the ‘China Plus One’ shift from key clients like Caterpillar. b) Uniparts is accelerating efforts to grow into adjacencies like hydraulics, incl. via M&A; the newly developed 3PL for UTV/ATV has potential to clock ~Rs2bn revenue in 3-4 years. c) Rising warehousing, aftermarket would drive a better mix; expects sustained 20% margin, 25% RoCE. Uniparts is well set for recovery, given its India manufacturing/global delivery capabilities supported with execution of new order wins, net-cash BS, +25% return ratios and dividend payout. At CMP, it trades at ~12x FY23 P/E.

Through the past year, performance of insurance stocks has predominantly been shaped by regulatory changes, instigated by the IRDAI, shifts in taxation policies regarding non-linked high-value policies, and actions taken by both – direct and indirect tax authorities. Although life insurance stocks currently face numerous challenges, including: i) a slowdown in the growth of life insurance premiums, ii) margin contraction due to shifts in product offerings, and iii) ongoing regulatory adjustments, we maintain a positive outlook on its long-term growth prospects in India. Such optimism stems from favorable demographic trends, increasing wealth among the populace, and the persisting need for comprehensive protection & longevity coverage. Considering the likelihood of Q4 performance for life insurers being impacted by a high base effect owing to exceptional sales in Mar-23, the attention now turns towards the outlook for FY25. Given the appealing sector valuations, we favor companies with robust brand recognition, established franchise strength, and operational cost efficiencies that pave the way for sustainable profitability. Our preference remains for SBI Life, IPRU Life, MAX Life, and HDFC Life.

Q4FY24 preview: A more or less steady quarter for all

OMCs’ earnings to be driven by better diesel marketing margins and GRMs. Diesel marketing margins were back in the black at Rs3/ltr vs. negative ~Rs0.5/ltr QoQ, while petrol margins improved by 12% to ~Rs7.5/ltr in Q4FY24. Brent averaged at ~USD83/bbl in Q4FY24, down 2% QoQ; however, it closed ~USD9/bbl higher at ~USD87/bbl between the two quarter ends, thereby resulting in refining inventory gains of ~USD2/bbl (but could accrue mainly for HPCL). Sizeable marketing inventory losses across OMCs should be there due to RSP cuts in sensitive fuels. Benchmark GRMs improved to USD7-8/bbl from USD5-6/bbl QoQ, mainly led by improvement in gasoline spreads. Russian crude discounts were largely range-bound, while Middle East OSPs were lower by USD1-2/bbl. We expect BPCL and HPCL to record better EBITDA QoQ, albeit on a low base, while IOCL could see a 7% dip due to inventory loss adjustments. Q4FY24E PAT for IOCL is estimated at Rs78bn, while BPCL/HPCL would see PAT of Rs47bn/34b

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Price Band changes from 10% to 5%: HLV. 

Price Band changes from 5% to 20%: Shipping Corporation of India Land and Assets. 

Ex/record stock split: Cupid 

Ex/record bonus: Cupid 

Ex/record dividend: Sundaram Clayton, Varun Beverages. 

Moved into short-term ASM framework: Technocraft Industries (India). 

Moved out of short-term ASM framework: Manoj Vaibhav Gems N Jewellers.

Chambal Fertilizers and Chemicals: Promoter revoked the pledge of 17.15 lakh shares on March 30.

Medi Assist Healthcare Services: Edelweiss Broking sold 4.82 lakh shares (0.7%) at Rs 500.02 apiece. 

Edelweiss Financial Services: CLSA Global Markets PTE bought 2.72 crore shares (2.88%) at Rs 69.16 apiece, while The Pabrai Investment Fund IV LP sold 272.08 lakh shares (2.88%) at

Rs 69.15 apiece. 

On Mobile Global: Anshul Saigal bought 5.32 lakh shares (0.5%) at Rs 75.15 apiece.

The public issue was subscribed to 0.34 times on day 1. The bids were led by institutional investors (0.29 times), non-institutional investors (0.36 times), and retail investors (0.48 times).

Axis Bank: The Competition Commission has approved the proposed infusion of Rs 1,612 crore by the company in Max Life Insurance.

* KEC International:* The company secured orders worth Rs 816 crore across various businesses.

* L&T Finance Holdings:* The company reported retail loan book at Rs 80,010 crore in the fourth quarter, up 31% YoY and retail disbursements at Rs 15,030 crore, up 33% YoY.

* Brigade Enterprises:* The company signed a joint development agreement with United Oxygen to develop a ‘Grade A’ office space with a leasable area of 3.0 lakh square feet and the project has a gross development value of around Rs 340 crore.

* Avenue Supermart:* The company’s standalone revenue from operations stood at Rs 12,393.5 crore, up 19.9% YoY for the fourth quarter. The total number of stores was 365 as of March 31.

* Vodafone Idea:* The board will meet on April 6 to consider share issuance proposals of equity and/or convertible shares on a preferential basis.

* Vedanta:* Vedanta Aluminium has expanded its alumina refining capacity to 3.5 million tonne per

annum.

* Suryoday Small Finance Bank:* The company reported disbursements at Rs 2,340 crore, up 39% YoY in the fourth quarter, gross advances at Rs 8,650 crore, up 41% YoY and total deposits at Rs 7,775 crore, up 50% YoY.

* RBL Bank:* The company reported total deposits at Rs 1.03 lakh crore, up 22% YoY as of March 31 and gross advances at Rs 85,640 crore, up 5% YoY.

* GE Power:* The company received orders worth Rs 774.9 crore from Jaiprakash Power.

* Thomas Cook:* The company has inaugurated a new branch in Bhuj, Gujarat, to capitalise on the strong and growing demand from Gujarat.

* Punjab and Sindh Bank:* Arnab Goswamy has been appointed as Chief Financial Officer for a period of 3 years from the date of his joining.

* Electronics Mart India:* The company has commenced the commercial operations of a new multi-brand specialised store under the brand name ‘AUDIO and BEYOND on April 3.

* Royal Orchid Hotels:* The company’s arm signed an agreements) with Masa Hotels for running and operating HOTEL MASA, which has 300 keys, a restaurant, a bar, banquet halls and meeting rooms.

* Gufic Biosciences:* Incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary, “VEIRA LIFE FZE,” in Dubai for the marketing, distribution, and sale of pharmaceutical products.

* Cyient DLM:* Ram Dornala ceases to be the chief operating officer of the company effective today.

* Veranda Learning Solutions:* The company’s stake has increased to 51% in Tapasya Educational Institutions.

Key highlights from the 2024-25 combined budget analysis

- Combining the 2024-25 budgets of the Union government and our estimates of state governments (based on 20 large states), we find that total receipts of the general government (GG; Center + States) are budgeted to rise 15.1% YoY in FY24RE and 12.1% YoY in FY25BE. Aggregate spending, however, is budgeted to increase only 8% YoY in FY25BE, following a growth of 14% in FY24RE. Accordingly, the combined fiscal deficit is budgeted to decline to 8.3% of GDP in FY25BE, from 9.3% of GDP in FY24RE (vs. 9.2% of GDP in FY23).

- Based on unaudited monthly data up to Jan’24/Feb’24 for large states, our estimates suggest that combined receipts grew 15.9% YoY in FY24P, slightly better than FY24RE. Total spending, however, is estimated to have increased 12.6% in FY24P, helping to narrow the GG fiscal deficit to 8.9% of GDP in FY24.

- Total capex (excluding loans & advances) of the general government is budgeted to rise to 5.6% of GDP in FY25, same as in FY24RE, which is a record high. Include CPSEs, and the aggregate public sector capex increased to 14-year high of 6.4% of GDP in FY24P, and budgeted at 6.5% of GDP in FY25.

- Combined outstanding debt of GG is estimated to have risen to 83.6% of GDP in FY24RE, from 82.8% of GDP in FY23. Notably, it is budgeted to ease to 82.3% of GDP in FY25, the lowest in five years.

- Lastly, combined GMBs are budgeted at INR25.6t (7.8% of GDP) same as in in FY24 (8.7% of GDP) . NMBs are budgeted at INR20.2t (6.2% of GDP) in FY25BE vs. INR19.1t (6.5% of GDP) in FY24.

Estimate RoA gap to sustain at 40-50bp; maintain preference for ICICIBC

- ICICIBC has outperformed AXSB in four out of the past five fiscals, while on a cumulative basis, ICICI Bank’s stock has outperformed AXSB by 143% over the past five years. We note that since our AXSB rating downgrade, ICICIBC has outperformed AXSB by ~11% in the past few months.

- We believe that owing to constraints on the CD ratio and challenges in garnering retail deposits, AXSB will continue to face pressure on its growth and margin profile, leading to a persistent RoA gap compared to ICICI Bank. In our estimates, we have already accounted for a growth differential of 200-300bp between the two banks.

- ICICI Bank’s M-cap in Mar’19 was ~30% higher vs. Axis Bank with an absolute gap of ~INR580b. Five years later, in Mar’24, ICICI Bank’s M-Cap is 136% higher vs. Axis Bank and absolute gap now stands at INR4.45t.

- AXSB is currently trading at a 1.5x FY26E ABV and while overall valuations look reasonable, the pressure on key operating metrics will limit stock performance in the near term.

- We continue to prefer ICICIBC on its steady return ratios and its ability to deliver superior growth. We thus estimate ICICIBC to deliver FY26E RoA/RoE of 2.2%/17.8% vs. AXSB RoA/RoE of 1.7%/17.1%

Estimate volume growth of ~10% YoY for coverage universe in 4QFY24

- We estimate our coverage universe to report strong volume growth of 10% YoY (three-year CAGR at ~8%) in 4QFY24. Further, we estimate average capacity utilization of ~93% vs. ~91%/79% in 4QFY23/3QFY24. However, cement price corrected across regions in 4Q and the all-India average cement price was down ~7% (down INR25 per 50-kg bag) QoQ. We estimate blended realization for our coverage universe to decline ~3%/4% YoY/QoQ. 

- Given the sharp price correction in 4QFY24, we estimate average EBITDA/t to decline ~12% QoQ to INR990 (vs. our earlier estimate of INR1,100), which would partly be offset by positive operating leverage and favorable fuel prices. Aggregate EBITDA is estimated to increase 24% YoY, while OPM is expected to improve by 2.6pp YoY to 18.2%. 

- GRASIM’s revenue is estimated to decline 3% YoY. VSF volume is estimated to increase 5% YoY, while realization is estimated to decline 6% YoY (up ~1% QoQ). Chemical segment volume is estimated to increase 6% YoY, while realization could decline by 20% YoY. We expect the company’s EBITDA to increase 20% YoY and EBITDA margin to improve 1.6pp YoY to 8%. Adjusted PAT is estimated to grow 80% YoY 

PREVIEW: Execution and margin to be key monitorables

There has been a moderation in order inflows in 4QFY24 owing to the impending election cycle. However, for key verticals such as renewable energy, power T&D, defense, railways, metro and water, order inflows have been steady overall in FY24 thanks to the government’s continued thrust on capex. On the private side, investment activity has been selective, primarily in areas such as data centers, real estate, cement, metals & mining, industrial automation, and PLI-led capex. Green shoots are visible and the ordering momentum is expected to gather steam in the post-election period and is resulting in valuation re-rating for the entire sector. We believe that strong order books of the companies should provide healthy revenue visibility. We expect 15% YoY growth in execution in 4QFY24. Supply chain issues that had affected previous quarters may continue to weigh on execution over the next couple of quarters, with the Red Sea crisis being a key monitorable. We expect EPC companies – LT, KECI, and KPIL – to see a gradual margin expansion as their low-margin legacy projects are near completion. We expect product companies to pass on lower RM price benefits to end-users. As a result, we expect a ~25bp YoY contraction in EBITDA margin for our coverage universe. In 4QFY24, we estimate our coverage companies to report revenue growth of 15% YoY, EBITDA growth of 13% YoY, and PAT growth of 5% YoY.

Domestic markets are likely to open on a positive tone, according to Nifty futures at Gift City. Analysts expect the consolidation phase to continue due to the lack of triggers. The focus is on the RBI monetary policy outcome on Friday, especially the central bank’s comments.

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank’s rate-setting panel started its three-day deliberations on the next monetary policy set amid expectations that the central bank would once again keep the key interest rate unchanged and focus more on inflation control as concerns over economic growth are decreasing, said Emkay Global Financial.

Allcargo Group, an Indian-born global logistics conglomerate, has appointed logistics and supply chain industry veteran Ketan Kulkarni as Chief Growth Officer. In this crucial role, Ketan will be closely working with the Chairman’s office to strengthen the overall growth and operational efficiency at Allcargo Group. He will lead the process of stakeholder value creation across multiple businesses through periodic engagement with the respective leadership teams of Allcargo ECU Ltd (as per proposed scheme of arrangement, the international supply chain business will be demerged into Allcargo ECU limited, subject approvals), Allcargo Gati Ltd, Allcargo Supply Chain Ltd and Allcargo Terminals Ltd.

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Buzzing Stocks: Vodafone Idea, Vedanta, HCL Infosys, GE Power, Union Bank of India, Poonawalla Fincorp, L&T Finance, KEC International, Edelweiss Financial, Federal Bank, GMR Power, Gufic Bio, Aurionpro, Brigade Enterprises 

Lithium prices will likely recover modestly in 2024 and 2025 as the fall in the rates witnessed in 2023 has resulted in a production cut, the Australian Office of the Chief Economist (AOCE) has said. Analysts and industry leaders say prices may stabilise in 2024 before rising in 2025. 

The cumulative coal production from captive and commercial mines rose by a healthy 27 per cent y-o-y to hit a record 147.2 million tonnes (MT) in the last financial year, which concluded in March 2024.

Besides, the dispatch of the critical commodity during FY24 also rose by 30 per cent y-o-y to 143 MT, against 110 MT during FY23.

India’s crude oil imports from its traditional source, the Middle East, have been inching up in the last six months, since the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) began sanctioning vessels transporting Russian crude oil above the coalition-agreed price cap of $60 a barrel in October last year.

Rs. CRS. 

FIIS : SELL -2,213 (13,813-16,026)

DIIS : BUY +1,102 (13,037-11,935)

RPM International Inc. (Pre market) (Sector- Chemicals)

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (Pre market) (Sector- FMCG)

ConAgra Brands, Inc. (Pre market) (Sector- FMCG)

China, Hong Kong and Taiwan @ Market Holiday 

13:30 Euro Final Service PMI (Expected: 51.1 versus Previous: 51.1

14:00 U.K. Final Service PMI (Expected: 53.4 versus Previous: 53.4)

18:00 U.S. Unemployment Claims (Expected: 214K versus Previous: 210K)

These include Nifty Tata Group 25% Cap, Nifty 500 Multicap India Manufacturing 50:30:20, Nifty 500 Multicap Infrastructure 50:30:20, and Nifty MidSmall Healthcare

The first IPO for the new fiscal FY25 is that of Bharti Hexacom, a 70 per cent subsidiary of telecom giant Bhart Airtel (Airtel). The company is an integrated telecom player offering mobile, fixed line and broadband services in few specific circles in India – Rajasthan and North-East.

Here’s an interesting stock idea: The stock that we have today is Marico. It has been in a downtrend since September last year. In the short-term, too, it is likely to decline.Check out the latest episode of Today’s Pick to learn more.

Marico’s stock has been on a downtrend since September last year. It began to depreciate on the back of the resistance at ₹600. In early March this year, the scrip slipped below a key support at ₹515, opening the door for further fall in price. That said, over the past couple of weeks, the stock has largely been kept in a horizontal trend between ₹490 and ₹505.

Here are the intraday supports and resistances for widely traded stocks such as Reliance Industries, ITC, ONGC, Infosys, HDFC Bank, TCS and SBI