The Hindu Business Line : Outlook for rogue westerly system maintained

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Thiruvananthapuram, March 6 Outlook for the rogue western disturbance expected to hit Northwest India around Friday has been maintained with likely adverse implications for the standing rabi wheat crop.

The stakes are particularly high since the rising seasonal trend in mercury could, in association with the moisture brought in by the western disturbance, trigger locally heavy rains and possibly hail in the plains.

Viewed in this context, Madhya Pradesh and westerm Uttar Pradesh are vulnerable areas. Scattered to fairly widespread rain has been forecast for Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and adjoining regions on Friday and Saturday.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts a "flare up" over the region on Tuesday next, well after the big system would have moved to the east.

Forecast for a follow-up westerly system hitting South Rajasthan and North Gujarat around Wednesday/Thursday next has also been retained, said Dr K.J. Ramesh of the Department of Science and Technology. But the system was too far away for being assessed for its relative strength.

In its forecast on Tuesday, the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) said most parts of Indo-Gangetic plains are likely to experience moderate to strong surface winds during the next two days in anticipation of the arrival of the big westerly system.

The rain belt will move into Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand by Monday. Expected rounds of wet spell from these systems, possibly accompanied by isolated hail, do not augur well for the Rabi wheat crop.

In fact, hail is known to account for the destruction of an estimated one per cent of the world's crops. Damage can be severe enough to kill livestock and bring damage to homes.

Hail can also kill humans as well as damage cars and other similar objects in its path.

Northern India and Bangladesh are known worldwide to be among the most notorious regions for large hail. They have reported more hail-related deaths than anywhere else and also some of the largest hailstones ever measured.

Three factors contributing to make a hailstorm dangerous are the size of the stones, the frequency with which they fall, and the wind speed. The most horrific hailstorm ever occurred on April 30, 1888, in Northern India. In 1932, another massive storm in the region killed more than 200 people and injured thousands.

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