The Hindu Business Line : Migrating trough drives rains to East India

Thiruvananthapuram, Sep. 4 The monsoon trough has lifted completely to the north in alignment with the Himalayan foothills as the push-and-shove effect of a building high-pressure area let in dry westerlies into northwest India.

The rain-driving trough on Tuesday passed through Ganganagar, Pilani, Kanpur, Allahabad, Gaya, Dumka and northeastwards into the Northeastern States. Its eastern end has emerged fully out of the Bay waters and is resting over land. This would mean that the monsoonal rain would now be confined to a narrow stretch in the east and the northeast, with parts of the plains in the northwest expecting to get some spill-over precipitation.

MAY TRACE BACK

The dry westerlies are blowing in from across the border but some international weather models suggest that reconverging monsoon easterlies would offer some resistance from September 11 when the trough expectedly traces itself back into the Bay tracking some activity there.

But the trough is seen bringing widespread rain/thundershowers with scattered heavy to very heavy falls over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States during the four days.

SAVING GRACE

Himachal Pradesh (-32 per cent) and Arunachal Pradesh -24 per cent), two of the seven rain-deficient Met sub-divisions till date, can hope to receive some showers from the latest alignment of the trough and salvage the situation to an extent. Rainfall is in deficit if it is 19 per cent below the seasonal normal and less.

But it’s more of an open-and-shut case (deficit in percentage figures) for Punjab (-21); Haryana and Delhi (-32); west Uttar Pradesh (-35); east Madhya Pradesh (-33); and Marathwada (-24), which get their rain from the normal northwest-southeast alignment of the trough straddling the plains. The fact that Punjab, Haryana and, to some extent, west Uttar Pradesh are irrigated to some extent should help.

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