The Hindu Business Line : Foodgrains output fails to keep pace with demand growth

The rate of growth of foodgrains production decelerated to 1.2 per cent during 1990-2007, lower than even annual rate of growth of population averaging 1.9 per cent. The per capita availability of cereals and pulses declined during the period.

G. Chandrashekhar

Mumbai, May 6

Americans are used to plenty, not shortage. American splurge, not scrounge. Everything in the US is large including the food plate – the nation swears by scale.

No wonder, when Wal-Mart and Costco decided to ration rice to supermarket shoppers, the whole nation was aghast.

How can there be food rationing in a land of grain mountains and milk oceans?

Politicians jumped in – as they invariably do.

To placate distraught Americans who did not find enough rice on shop shelf, first the Secretary of State, Ms Condoleezza Rice, and soon, thereafter, President George W. Bush informed the nation the real reason.

The Chinese and the Indians (who, incidentally, together constitute 40 per cent of the world population) are becoming more affluent and eating more grains, the American public was told.

Why did the US administration say what it did? Very simply, the administration knew that an average American knows very little about China and India, and cares even less. He lives in his own world far removed from most parts of the world.

This general ignorance suits politicians. It was rather easy for President Bush and Ms Rice to explain away the food shortage by pointing to countries that are both geographically and mentally away from the US.

Who cares about facts and figures?

rising affluence

To be fair, the statement about rising affluence in Asia was part of explanation for rising food prices.

It was not intended to blame China and India, but to give a logical-sounding excuse to American consumers.

Unfortunately, the Bush administration did not reckon with the response of its counterparts in India.

Taking umbrage, several politicians here have jumped up and down, and criticised the statements attributing global food inflation to expanding consumption in India.

Logically, Indian policymakers and politicians should be happy if Indians were actually beginning to consume more food. However, they are aware of the true facts; and thats hurting. To its credit, India ranks high in world food production. It is the world’s third largest food producer (after China and the US).

Specifically, India is the world’s largest producer of milk; and second largest in rice, wheat, sugar and cotton as also fruits and vegetables. However, there is a catch.

Per capita availability

Despite being a large producer of a range of food products, the per capita availability is one of the lowest because of the large size of the population - 1.12 billion and growing at about 1.8 per cent a year.

Indeed, it may shock many that India’s per capita net availability of foodgrains today is lower than it was 15 years ago.

Foodgrains output growth has failed to keep pace with the demand growth driven by rising incomes and demographic pressure.

Instead of seeking to find fault with the US President Bush and Ms Rice, Indian policymakers, politicians and administrators need to introspect; and feel ashamed.

Managerial ability

Why has this country with excellent natural endowments - varied agro- climatic conditions, 270 days of sunshine, 880 millimetres of rainfall, 150 million hectares of land and over 100 million farmhands - failed to leverage its strengths.

There should be something fundamentally wrong with our farm policies and their implementation.

All the factors of production are present; but whats lacking is managerial ability to bring them together and beneficially exploit them.

While manufacturing sector and services sector have been growing at near - or at double-digit, farm output continues to languish.

From about 4.5 per cent in the Eighth Five-Year Plan, annual average growth rate of agriculture and allied activities declined by half to 2.2 per cent in the Ninth FYP and stagnated at 2.3 per cent in the Tenth FYP.

For the 11th FYP, the farm growth target is four per cent; but there is no guarantee it would be achieved.

The target for foodgrains production is even lower than the modest overall target. At this rate, creeping food shortages in India can only go from bad to worse in the coming years. Food exporting countries are no doubt watching developments (or the lack of it) on the farm front here.

At this rate, to the extant shopping list comprising edible oils, pulses and wheat, India may soon add rice and even the unthinkable, sugar.

Will India fight the bushfire of food shortage?