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Vinson Kurian

Thiruvananthapuram, Nov. 27 Tropical Cyclone Nisha crossed the Tamil Nadu coast close to north of Karaikal early on Thursday morning, an update from the Regional Met Centre, Chennai, said.

But Nisha has mostly retained its intensity through the day, according to the US military’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC). The convective bands may have rapidly dissipated on moving inland but the system did not weaken to below cyclonic intensity for a while.

A late evening update from India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that Nisha weakened into a deep depression and lay centred at 2.30 p.m. on Thursday over interior Tamil Nadu, about 100 km east-southeast of Dharmapuri. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and weaken further.

Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 km/hr are likely along and off the Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts during the next 12 hours. Sea condition would be very rough to high along and off these coasts. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr is also likely over interior districts of Tamil Nadu.

JTWC had projected that Nisha would retain tropical cyclone status (wind speeds of 74 km/hr gusting to 92 km/hr) until 11.30 p.m. on Thursday. Flooded tracts were seen helping it fuel its engine over land.

In any case, Nisha would continue to dump torrents over north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry over the next 24 hours, carrying on from where it ends the day on Thursday. Rapid weakening would come about as Nisha encounters the rugged terrain over interior Tamil Nadu. Remnants would track west-northwestward to finally end up in the eastern Arabian Sea where the system will be closely monitored for signs of regeneration.

The northeast monsoon has been vigorous over north Tamil Nadu.

Meanwhile, outlook is still being maintained for an incoming easterly wave from the South China Sea to grow as the next significant weather system in the Bay of Bengal. This too is seen aiming to hit coastal Tamil Nadu early in December. A separate warning valid for the period said that scattered heavy with isolated very heavy to extremely heavy (above 25 cm) rain is likely over north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Isolated heavy to very heavy rain is also likely to occur over south interior Karnataka, south coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema and isolated heavy rain over south Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

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