The Hindu Business Line : Cyclone threat off for TN as 07B weakens

Thiruvananthapuram, Dec. 7 The deep depression ‘07B’ over southwest Bay of Bengal weakened into a depression prior to landfall over south-central Sri Lanka on Saturday.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre of the US Military assessed that the storm had suddenly veered from its west-northwest track to being south-southwest as it approached the Sri Lanka coast. India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday that 07B would cross the Tamil Nadu coast between Tuticorin and Nagapattinam, close to Tondi, by Monday morning. International models suggest that 07B may have broken up into two over Sri Lanka, and only a remnant would wash over along the Karaikudi-Arantangi-Kodiyakkarai belt on the south Tamil Nadu coast by early Monday morning.

MAY DIE OUT

This remnant would be made to pass through the relatively cooler waters of the Palk Straits. The CIRA/NESDIS model runs of the US National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration says that it may die out over interior Tamil Nadu soon after landfall. But the other ‘burning ember’ finds itself lodged to the southwest Lankan coast and the adjoining Indian Ocean where these models expect it to gradually regenerate as a potent system over the Gulf of Mannar/Indian Ocean. This would in turn track to the west and get strengthened over the Indian Ocean to the southwest of Kerala. Further strengthening is also indicated, and with it a further movement into the open waters of the Arabian Sea.

The Regional Met Centre, Chennai, said in its update that a weakened 07B sparked only isolated rainfall over Tamil Nadu on Sunday. But forecast for the next two days said rain or thundershowers are likely to occur at many places over south Tamil Nadu and the Nagapattinam, Tiruvarur, Thanjavur and Pudukottai districts of north coastal Tamil Nadu, apart from a few places over south Kerala. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over north Kerala, Lakshadweep, Rayalaseema, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, south interior Karnataka and over the rest of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. A separate warning said isolated heavy to very heavy rain is likely to occur over south Tamil Nadu, and north coastal Tamil Nadu.

Squally weather with wind speed reaching 45-55 km/hr gusting to 65 km/hr is likely along Nagapattinam, Pudukottai, Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Ramanathapuram, Tuticorin, Tirunelveli and Kanyakumari districts during the next 24 hours.

WESTERLY SYSTEM

An incoming western disturbance has switched on weather over the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains of northwest India, which would stay as such for three days from Sunday. The rising and moist air in front has jacked up minimum temperatures by 8-10 deg C over west Rajasthan, Saurashtra and Kutch; and by 4-6 deg C over east Rajasthan, adjoining plains of northwest India, Gujarat, Bihar and the Northeastern states. Mercury will stay elevated over the forecast period and fall thereafter with the passing of the western disturbance and incursion of cold and sinking air in its wake. IMD has forecast rain or snow at a few places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and isolated rain or thundershowers over Punjab, Haryana and west Rajasthan.

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