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Thiruvananthapuram, May 14

The southwest monsoon is likely to make an onset over Kerala on May 26, five days ahead of schedule, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.

The forecast model has an inbuilt error margin of plus or minus four days, which lends an outside chance of the onset materialising ahead or beyond the May-26 median.

Monsoon flows

It is expected that within two to three days from now, the monsoon flow will start appearing over Andaman Sea prior to covering the farthest outpost in the Indian territorial waters close to its normal date.

The IMD said the normal date of advance of monsoon over the Andaman Sea (the Bay of Bengal arm) is May 20 (not May 15 as stated in these columns).

There is no one-to-one association between the date of monsoon advance over Andaman Sea and the date of monsoon onset over Kerala.

Rain or thundershowers have been forecast at a few places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next two days prior to scaling up thereafter. Isolated thundershowers are likely over Kerala, Lakshadweep and north coastal Andhra Pradesh.

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh and interior Karnataka may too witness thundershowers. But heat wave conditions have been warned over parts of north coastal Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Rayalaseema.

Land settings

The setting over the mainland is evolving not least represented by the seasonal `heat low,' the key monsoon enabler borne out of relentless heating of northwest India and adjoining Pakistan.

Atmospheric pressure once again breached the sub 1000-millibar level to a new low of 996 millibars aided by prevailing heat wave conditions. Mercury soared to 46.6 deg Celsius at Barmer on Wednesday.

Maximum temperatures are normal or slightly below normal over large parts of the country except the south peninsula, extreme northeast India and westernmost parts of Rajasthan.

May rise further

According to Dr Akhilesh Gupta of the Department of Science and Technology, predictions suggest that day temperatures are going to rise by 2-4 degree Celsius over most parts of the country during next five-seven days.

The trend may start from Rajasthan and spread to north and central India. These areas may develop heat wave conditions in next few days. There may be slight fall in day temperatures in south peninsular India after four days.

Most parts of the country are witnessing normal or below normal night temperatures except west Rajasthan where these are slightly above normal.

It is expected that there may be a gradual rise in night temperatures over most parts of north and central India. Central parts of the country may witness a rise of up to 4 deg Celsius during next the five-seven days, Dr Gupta said.

Heat wave

The IMD said in its update on Thursday that heat wave conditions are prevailing over parts of west Rajasthan and isolated pockets of Vidarbha, Telangana, Marathwada, madhya Maharashtra, Telangana, Rayalaseema and coastal Tamil Nadu.

Meanwhile, the weather maker trough/wind discontinuity (where opposing wind streams merge) persisted and ran down from Orissa to south Tamil Nadu through coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema with an embedded cyclonic circulation over Orissa.

The counterpart west-to-east trough in the lower level westerlies lay extended from Assam and Meghalaya to northeast Bay of Bengal. A cyclonic circulation lay parked over Gangetic West Bengal. The other overnight cyclonic circulation over northwest Rajasthan too persisted.

The IMD has warned of thunder squall and hail over parts of West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States during the next 24 hours. Rain or thundershowers are expected at many places in the region.

Going forward, rain or thundershower activity will be set off at a few places over west peninsular India.

More Stories on : Climate & Weather | Climate & Weather

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