An expected low-pressure area sprung up over northwest Bay of Bengal, heralding the brightest phase yet of year 2012 monsoon.
Low-pressure areas are the vehicles on which the monsoon drives in from the seas and brings forth varying amounts of rain till such time as they decay.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that there is a possibility a follow-up rain system may evolve over the Bay by July 26 (Thursday next).
A European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts update said that monsoon flows may hold firm until the end of the month.
But some US models see the rains steering northwards into north India from July 24 - to north Madhya Pradesh and west Uttar Pradesh and onwards into the foothills.
Meanwhile, seasonal forecast outlook from Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) has not changed the ‘weak monsoon’ outlook for India.
Dr Takeshi Doi of the Climate Variation Predictability and Applicability Research Programme at RIGC stated this in a communication to Business Line.
The near-El Nino conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific will continue into the next several months until the northern hemisphere winter.
It is too early yet to declare the onset of El Nino, Dr Doi reiterated.
Significantly, he added that the warmer sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean will persist through the winter.
This condition is similar to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode, which has a more immediate and harmful impact on the Indian monsoon.
Warmer and drier conditions will continue over east Africa and India from summer to autumn possibly due to the evolving negative IOD.
However, here again, the signal is relatively weak, Dr Doi said.
As for region-wise forecasts, he said that a warmer summer is evolving for most parts of the globe except Canada, Alaska, China and northern Australia.
The winter could get colder in central Asia, China, the far-east and North America. West Africa and Brazil will be relatively wetter as they get into southern hemisphere spring.